The Iranian regime has shown resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination, and subsequent protests, with interim leadership structures and the IRGC maintaining cohesion and suppressing unrest without major defections. As of mid-August 2026, stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure have not produced the rapid internal collapse traders would need to see for a regime change by September 30. This short timeline, combined with the security apparatus’s demonstrated capacity to contain dissent, underpins the 98.5% implied probability on “No.” A sudden breakdown in talks triggering intensified military action, coordinated elite defections, or renewed nationwide protests that security forces cannot contain remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
2% khả năng
$1,643,619 KL.
$1,643,619 KL.
Sep 29, 2026
2% khả năng
$1,643,619 KL.
$1,643,619 KL.
Sep 29, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has shown resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination, and subsequent protests, with interim leadership structures and the IRGC maintaining cohesion and suppressing unrest without major defections. As of mid-August 2026, stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure have not produced the rapid internal collapse traders would need to see for a regime change by September 30. This short timeline, combined with the security apparatus’s demonstrated capacity to contain dissent, underpins the 98.5% implied probability on “No.” A sudden breakdown in talks triggering intensified military action, coordinated elite defections, or renewed nationwide protests that security forces cannot contain remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,643,619Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. The Iranian regime has shown resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination, and subsequent protests, with interim leadership structures and the IRGC maintaining cohesion and suppressing unrest without major defections. As of mid-August 2026, stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure have not produced the rapid internal collapse traders would need to see for a regime change by September 30. This short timeline, combined with the security apparatus’s demonstrated capacity to contain dissent, underpins the 98.5% implied probability on “No.” A sudden breakdown in talks triggering intensified military action, coordinated elite defections, or renewed nationwide protests that security forces cannot contain remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,643,619Ngày kết thúc
Sep 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Iranian regime has shown resilience after the February 2026 U.S.-Israel strikes, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination, and subsequent protests, with interim leadership structures and the IRGC maintaining cohesion and suppressing unrest without major defections. As of mid-August 2026, stalled negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz and sanctions pressure have not produced the rapid internal collapse traders would need to see for a regime change by September 30. This short timeline, combined with the security apparatus’s demonstrated capacity to contain dissent, underpins the 98.5% implied probability on “No.” A sudden breakdown in talks triggering intensified military action, coordinated elite defections, or renewed nationwide protests that security forces cannot contain remain the primary scenarios that could still shift the outcome before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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