US assessments indicate that People's Liberation Army readiness shortfalls, stemming from extended anti-corruption purges and logistics gaps, make a full-scale amphibious invasion of Taiwan improbable before 2028. Beijing appears focused on monitoring Taiwan's 2028 presidential election rather than forcing unification by force in the immediate term, while continuing lower-intensity gray-zone pressure through aircraft incursions, coast guard patrols, and routine exercises. With only weeks remaining until the end of 2026, these factors underpin trader consensus around a 97.5% probability of no invasion. Unforeseen triggers, such as a sudden cross-strait miscalculation or abrupt policy shift by either side, remain the primary variables that could still alter the outcome in the narrow window left.