Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the brief remaining window, U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers coercive pressure over amphibious assault, and the prohibitive economic and military risks of conflict. Recent months have featured routine PLA live-fire drills in the strait, expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, and Taiwan’s largest-ever Han Kuang reservist exercises, yet these actions align with ongoing gray-zone tactics rather than invasion preparations. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections while highlighting unification through non-military means. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen Taiwanese provocation, sudden leadership change in Beijing, or rapid U.S. policy reversal, though none appear imminent.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTrung Quốc sẽ xâm lược Đài Loan vào cuối năm 2026?
Trung Quốc sẽ xâm lược Đài Loan vào cuối năm 2026?
Có
$39,718,105 KL.
$39,718,105 KL.
Có
$39,718,105 KL.
$39,718,105 KL.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Người giải quyết
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Traders assign a 96.3% probability that China will not invade Taiwan by the end of 2026 due to the brief remaining window, U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks a fixed timeline and prefers coercive pressure over amphibious assault, and the prohibitive economic and military risks of conflict. Recent months have featured routine PLA live-fire drills in the strait, expanded China Coast Guard patrols east of Taiwan, and Taiwan’s largest-ever Han Kuang reservist exercises, yet these actions align with ongoing gray-zone tactics rather than invasion preparations. Beijing continues diplomatic outreach to Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang ahead of 2028 elections while highlighting unification through non-military means. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unforeseen Taiwanese provocation, sudden leadership change in Beijing, or rapid U.S. policy reversal, though none appear imminent.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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