Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Jun 30 2026
Mediators Propose Phased Disarmament Plan to Revive Peace Process
In a bid to revive the stalled peace plan, mediators proposed a phased disarmament schedule, but intelligence assessments confirmed Hamas has no intention of actually disarming.
Jun 27 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows continued military presence in Gaza and surrounding areas
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu's statement that Israeli forces will remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria 'as long as required' signaled ongoing conflict and security concerns, reducing the likelihood of Hamas disarming by the June 30, 2026 deadline and depressing market prices.
Jun 26 2026
Hamas Launches Brutal Crackdown to Suppress June 26 Protests
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Hamas deployed armed guards, police, and militias to crush planned anti-Hamas protests across Gaza, where organizers had called on the group to disarm and cede power.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered peace agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon brokered by the US was signed, but Hezbollah's rejection and warnings of civil war indicated ongoing instability and resistance to disarmament, contributing to market skepticism about Hamas disarming by June 30, 2026.
Jun 25 2026
Gazans plan large anti-Hamas protest amid stagnation and disarmament deadlock
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Palestinians in Gaza organized a significant protest against Hamas's governance amid ongoing hardships and stalled peace efforts. The protest highlighted internal dissent but did not translate into Hamas disarming, reinforcing market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 23 2026
Board of Peace Demands Complete Disarmament of Hamas
Ceasefire talks faced a severe test after the High Representative of the Board of Peace demanded that Gaza be completely free of any weapons, down to a single bullet.
Jun 15 2026
EU fails to agree on sanctions against Israeli official amid Gaza conflict
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The European Union's failure to sanction Israeli official Ben Gvir despite pressure highlighted ongoing international divisions and lack of progress toward peace or disarmament in the region, negatively impacting market confidence in Hamas disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 10 2026
Gaza Peace Talks Stall Over Hamas Disarmament Demands
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Negotiations to finalize a lasting peace in Gaza hit a critical impasse as Hamas resisted total surrender and proposed only a symbolic handover of weapons, which Israel categorically rejected.
Jun 9 2026
Mediators propose gradual Hamas disarmament linked to phased Israeli withdrawal
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey presented Hamas with a staged disarmament proposal under US President Trump's Gaza plan, linking Hamas's disarmament to phased Israeli military withdrawal and humanitarian aid. Despite this, Hamas's acceptance remained uncertain, maintaining market pessimism.
Jun 5 2026
Hamas publicly rejects immediate disarmament, proposes police-only weapons in Gaza
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Hamas stated it will not surrender its weapons immediately, resisting disarmament demands and indicating that the fate of its arsenal will be decided after comprehensive discussions with other Palestinian factions. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Negotiations between Hamas and the Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov were postponed due to Hamas's reluctance to fully disarm, though Hamas showed openness to surrendering heavy weapons but insisted on retaining firearms. This delay and partial stance reinforced market doubts about imminent disarmament.
May 28 2026
Netanyahu orders Israeli army to seize 70% of Gaza, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered expansion of military control over Gaza to 70%, violating the ceasefire and complicating disarmament talks. This military escalation increased doubts about Hamas disarming soon, negatively impacting market confidence.
May 15 2026
Board of Peace to ask UN Security Council to press Hamas to disarm
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
The Board of Peace announced it would petition the UN Security Council to pressure Hamas to disarm. The move underscored the lack of a direct Hamas commitment and reinforced market expectations that the June deadline would not be met.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says Gaza ceasefire hinges on Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%13%
In mid-May, Nickolay Mladenov, Board of Peace envoy, stated that the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, calling disarmament "not negotiable". He suggested a political role for Hamas if it disarmed, but no formal disarmament announcement was made, sustaining market pessimism.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace prepares 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Bloomberg reported the Board of Peace was preparing a 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament. The continued discussion without a public Hamas pledge reinforced the market’s view that a June deadline was improbable.
Apr 19 2026
Hamas officials say group ready to hand over some weapons
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Two senior Hamas officials said the group was prepared to hand over some automatic rifles, but stopped short of a full disarmament pledge. The partial concession failed to lift market optimism for a full disarmament by June, keeping prices low.
Apr 7 2026
Board of Peace gives Hamas week‑long ultimatum on disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%8%
The Board of Peace gave Hamas a final week‑long ultimatum to accept a phased disarmament plan. The deadline, coupled with Hamas’ refusal, implied the plan would not be implemented by early June, pushing the market further down.
Apr 6 2026
Board of Peace demands Hamas finalize disarmament agreement by week's end
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%9%
In early April, the Board of Peace demanded Hamas finalize a disarmament agreement by the end of the week, increasing pressure. Hamas spokesman rejected disarmament outright, signaling unwillingness to comply and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
Apr 5 2026
Hamas spokesperson rejects disarmament outright
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida publicly rejected any disarmament, saying it would not be accepted under any circumstances. The outright refusal signaled that a formal disarmament announcement before the June‑30 deadline was unlikely, driving the market down sharply.
Mar 27 2026
Board of Peace presents eight‑month Hamas disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%23%
Reuters reported that the Board of Peace presented Hamas with a detailed eight‑month disarmament plan. Hamas’s silence and study of the document were interpreted as a lack of immediate commitment, contributing to the early decline in market confidence.
Mar 24 2026
UN Security Council discusses Gaza disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%14%
On March 24, the UN Security Council discussed the disarmament plan for Gaza, emphasizing that reconstruction depends on Hamas decommissioning its weapons. This reinforced international pressure but Hamas had not committed to disarmament, maintaining market uncertainty.
Mar 19 2026
Trump's Board of Peace formally presents disarmament proposal to Hamas
June 30, 2026 jumps to 39%13%
In mid-March, the US-led Board of Peace formally presented Hamas with a written proposal outlining a phased disarmament plan, requiring Hamas to hand over weapons and share tunnel maps. Hamas began considering the proposal but had not accepted it, causing market fluctuations.
Feb 25 2026
Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%18%
By late February, disagreements over how Hamas should disarm stalled progress on the Gaza peace plan, with Israel pushing for complete disarmament first and experts predicting Hamas would likely reject the plan. This increased skepticism about disarmament prospects.
Jan 29 2026
Senior Hamas official denies any agreement to disarm
On January 29, 2026, senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk publicly stated that Hamas had never agreed to disarm and that no direct discussions on disarmament had taken place, casting doubt on the likelihood of Hamas fulfilling disarmament demands. This statement likely contributed to initial market uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hamas officially announces it will disarm in the Gaza Strip by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only credible announcements, for example by the widely acknowledged leadership of Hamas, will qualify.
For the purposes of this market, "disarm" refers to a public commitment to relinquish or dismantle its military, whether partially or completely, in the Gaza Strip.
Announcements of partial disarmament (e.g., surrendering a class of weapons or agreeing to disarm in stages or a certain region) will qualify as long as it is part of an acknowledged disarmament process.
Only official announcements will qualify. Informal statements, plans contingent on future conditions, statements of intent without a formal policy directive, or any other statements that do not constitute a formal policy announcement will not be considered.
Primary resolution sources will include official statements from Hamas leadership; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting confirming a policy of disarmament has been instituted will also qualify.
Recent Cairo talks have produced an effective rejection by Hamas of core disarmament elements in the U.S.-backed Gaza peace plan, stalling movement into phase two of the October 2025 ceasefire. Hamas conditions any discussion of weapons handover or demilitarization on full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, complete implementation of phase-one terms, and an end to reported violations. The Board of Peace, led by envoy Nickolay Mladenov, has presented phased proposals involving heavy-weapons surrender and tunnel mapping, yet mediators note persistent deadlock. Ongoing low-level incidents, including Israeli strikes, and international stabilization-force planning continue to shape negotiations without resolution on timelines or guarantees.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Jun 30 2026
Mediators Propose Phased Disarmament Plan to Revive Peace Process
In a bid to revive the stalled peace plan, mediators proposed a phased disarmament schedule, but intelligence assessments confirmed Hamas has no intention of actually disarming.
Jun 27 2026
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vows continued military presence in Gaza and surrounding areas
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Netanyahu's statement that Israeli forces will remain in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria 'as long as required' signaled ongoing conflict and security concerns, reducing the likelihood of Hamas disarming by the June 30, 2026 deadline and depressing market prices.
Jun 26 2026
Hamas Launches Brutal Crackdown to Suppress June 26 Protests
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%1%
Hamas deployed armed guards, police, and militias to crush planned anti-Hamas protests across Gaza, where organizers had called on the group to disarm and cede power.
Jun 26 2026
Israel and Lebanon sign US-brokered peace agreement
June 30, 2026 dips to 2%4%
A peace agreement between Israel and Lebanon brokered by the US was signed, but Hezbollah's rejection and warnings of civil war indicated ongoing instability and resistance to disarmament, contributing to market skepticism about Hamas disarming by June 30, 2026.
Jun 25 2026
Gazans plan large anti-Hamas protest amid stagnation and disarmament deadlock
June 30, 2026 dips to 1%2%
Palestinians in Gaza organized a significant protest against Hamas's governance amid ongoing hardships and stalled peace efforts. The protest highlighted internal dissent but did not translate into Hamas disarming, reinforcing market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 23 2026
Board of Peace Demands Complete Disarmament of Hamas
Ceasefire talks faced a severe test after the High Representative of the Board of Peace demanded that Gaza be completely free of any weapons, down to a single bullet.
Jun 15 2026
EU fails to agree on sanctions against Israeli official amid Gaza conflict
June 30, 2026 dips to 6%1%
The European Union's failure to sanction Israeli official Ben Gvir despite pressure highlighted ongoing international divisions and lack of progress toward peace or disarmament in the region, negatively impacting market confidence in Hamas disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Jun 10 2026
Gaza Peace Talks Stall Over Hamas Disarmament Demands
June 30, 2026 dips to 9%4%
Negotiations to finalize a lasting peace in Gaza hit a critical impasse as Hamas resisted total surrender and proposed only a symbolic handover of weapons, which Israel categorically rejected.
Jun 9 2026
Mediators propose gradual Hamas disarmament linked to phased Israeli withdrawal
Mediators from Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey presented Hamas with a staged disarmament proposal under US President Trump's Gaza plan, linking Hamas's disarmament to phased Israeli military withdrawal and humanitarian aid. Despite this, Hamas's acceptance remained uncertain, maintaining market pessimism.
Jun 5 2026
Hamas publicly rejects immediate disarmament, proposes police-only weapons in Gaza
June 30, 2026 rises to 5%1%
Hamas stated it will not surrender its weapons immediately, resisting disarmament demands and indicating that the fate of its arsenal will be decided after comprehensive discussions with other Palestinian factions. This hardened stance contributed to market skepticism about disarmament by June 30, 2026.
Negotiations between Hamas and the Board of Peace envoy Nickolay Mladenov were postponed due to Hamas's reluctance to fully disarm, though Hamas showed openness to surrendering heavy weapons but insisted on retaining firearms. This delay and partial stance reinforced market doubts about imminent disarmament.
May 28 2026
Netanyahu orders Israeli army to seize 70% of Gaza, escalating tensions
June 30, 2026 dips to 4%2%
Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu ordered expansion of military control over Gaza to 70%, violating the ceasefire and complicating disarmament talks. This military escalation increased doubts about Hamas disarming soon, negatively impacting market confidence.
May 15 2026
Board of Peace to ask UN Security Council to press Hamas to disarm
June 30, 2026 drops to 14%10%
The Board of Peace announced it would petition the UN Security Council to pressure Hamas to disarm. The move underscored the lack of a direct Hamas commitment and reinforced market expectations that the June deadline would not be met.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace envoy says Gaza ceasefire hinges on Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 7%13%
In mid-May, Nickolay Mladenov, Board of Peace envoy, stated that the ceasefire was paralyzed due to Hamas not disarming, calling disarmament "not negotiable". He suggested a political role for Hamas if it disarmed, but no formal disarmament announcement was made, sustaining market pessimism.
May 13 2026
Board of Peace prepares 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament
June 30, 2026 dips to 8%2%
Bloomberg reported the Board of Peace was preparing a 15‑point plan to advance Hamas disarmament. The continued discussion without a public Hamas pledge reinforced the market’s view that a June deadline was improbable.
Apr 19 2026
Hamas officials say group ready to hand over some weapons
June 30, 2026 dips to 10%4%
Two senior Hamas officials said the group was prepared to hand over some automatic rifles, but stopped short of a full disarmament pledge. The partial concession failed to lift market optimism for a full disarmament by June, keeping prices low.
Apr 7 2026
Board of Peace gives Hamas week‑long ultimatum on disarmament
June 30, 2026 drops to 22%8%
The Board of Peace gave Hamas a final week‑long ultimatum to accept a phased disarmament plan. The deadline, coupled with Hamas’ refusal, implied the plan would not be implemented by early June, pushing the market further down.
Apr 6 2026
Board of Peace demands Hamas finalize disarmament agreement by week's end
June 30, 2026 drops to 12%9%
In early April, the Board of Peace demanded Hamas finalize a disarmament agreement by the end of the week, increasing pressure. Hamas spokesman rejected disarmament outright, signaling unwillingness to comply and causing market confidence to drop sharply.
Apr 5 2026
Hamas spokesperson rejects disarmament outright
June 30, 2026 drops to 26%7%
Hamas spokesperson Abu Obeida publicly rejected any disarmament, saying it would not be accepted under any circumstances. The outright refusal signaled that a formal disarmament announcement before the June‑30 deadline was unlikely, driving the market down sharply.
Mar 27 2026
Board of Peace presents eight‑month Hamas disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 plunges to 30%23%
Reuters reported that the Board of Peace presented Hamas with a detailed eight‑month disarmament plan. Hamas’s silence and study of the document were interpreted as a lack of immediate commitment, contributing to the early decline in market confidence.
Mar 24 2026
UN Security Council discusses Gaza disarmament plan
June 30, 2026 drops to 25%14%
On March 24, the UN Security Council discussed the disarmament plan for Gaza, emphasizing that reconstruction depends on Hamas decommissioning its weapons. This reinforced international pressure but Hamas had not committed to disarmament, maintaining market uncertainty.
Mar 19 2026
Trump's Board of Peace formally presents disarmament proposal to Hamas
June 30, 2026 jumps to 39%13%
In mid-March, the US-led Board of Peace formally presented Hamas with a written proposal outlining a phased disarmament plan, requiring Hamas to hand over weapons and share tunnel maps. Hamas began considering the proposal but had not accepted it, causing market fluctuations.
Feb 25 2026
Disputes over Hamas disarmament stall Gaza peace plan progress
June 30, 2026 plunges to 31%18%
By late February, disagreements over how Hamas should disarm stalled progress on the Gaza peace plan, with Israel pushing for complete disarmament first and experts predicting Hamas would likely reject the plan. This increased skepticism about disarmament prospects.
Jan 29 2026
Senior Hamas official denies any agreement to disarm
On January 29, 2026, senior Hamas official Moussa Abu Marzouk publicly stated that Hamas had never agreed to disarm and that no direct discussions on disarmament had taken place, casting doubt on the likelihood of Hamas fulfilling disarmament demands. This statement likely contributed to initial market uncertainty.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp
"Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" là thị trường dự đoán trên Polymarket với 6 kết quả có thể nơi các nhà giao dịch mua và bán cổ phần dựa trên điều họ tin sẽ xảy ra. Kết quả dẫn đầu hiện tại là "December 31, 2026" ở mức 33%, tiếp theo là "June 30, 2026" ở mức 0%. Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực. Ví dụ, cổ phần ở giá 33¢ ngụ ý thị trường tập thể cho rằng có 33% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Tỷ lệ này thay đổi liên tục khi trader phản ứng với diễn biến và thông tin mới. Cổ phần đúng kết quả có thể đổi lấy $1 mỗi cổ phần khi thị trường được giải quyết.
Tính đến hôm nay, "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" đã tạo $2.1 million tổng khối lượng giao dịch kể từ khi thị trường mở vào Jul 30, 2025. Mức hoạt động giao dịch này phản ánh sự tham gia mạnh mẽ từ cộng đồng Polymarket và giúp đảm bảo tỷ lệ hiện tại được thông tin bởi nhóm người tham gia thị trường sâu rộng. Bạn có thể theo dõi biến động giá trực tiếp và giao dịch trên bất kỳ kết quả nào ngay trên trang này.
Để giao dịch trên "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?," duyệt 6 kết quả có sẵn trên trang này. Mỗi kết quả hiển thị giá hiện tại đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Để mở vị thế, chọn kết quả bạn tin là có khả năng nhất, chọn "Có" để giao dịch ủng hộ hoặc "Không" để giao dịch chống, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu kết quả bạn chọn đúng khi thị trường giải quyết, cổ phần "Có" của bạn trả $1 mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, chúng trả $0. Bạn cũng có thể bán cổ phần bất cứ lúc nào trước khi giải quyết nếu muốn chốt lời hoặc cắt lỗ.
Ứng viên dẫn đầu hiện tại cho "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" là "December 31, 2026" ở mức 33%, nghĩa là thị trường cho 33% khả năng cho kết quả đó. Kết quả gần nhất tiếp theo là "June 30, 2026" ở mức 0%. Tỷ lệ cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi trader mua và bán cổ phần, phản ánh cái nhìn tập thể mới nhất về điều có khả năng xảy ra nhất. Kiểm tra thường xuyên hoặc đánh dấu trang này để theo dõi tỷ lệ thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện.
Quy tắc giải quyết cho "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" định nghĩa chính xác điều gì cần xảy ra để mỗi kết quả được tuyên bố thắng — bao gồm nguồn dữ liệu chính thức được sử dụng để xác định kết quả. Bạn có thể xem tiêu chí giải quyết đầy đủ trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này phía trên bình luận. Chúng tôi khuyên đọc kỹ quy tắc trước khi giao dịch, vì chúng chỉ rõ điều kiện, trường hợp ngoại lệ và nguồn chính xác quản lý cách thị trường được thanh toán.
Có. Bạn không cần giao dịch để cập nhật thông tin. Trang này đóng vai trò theo dõi trực tiếp cho "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?." Xác suất kết quả cập nhật theo thời gian thực khi có giao dịch mới. Bạn có thể đánh dấu trang này và kiểm tra phần bình luận để xem trader khác đang nói gì. Bạn cũng có thể sử dụng bộ lọc khoảng thời gian trên biểu đồ để xem tỷ lệ đã thay đổi thế nào. Đây là cửa sổ miễn phí, thời gian thực vào điều thị trường kỳ vọng sẽ xảy ra.
Tỷ lệ Polymarket được đặt bởi trader thực đặt tiền thực đằng sau niềm tin, có xu hướng đưa ra dự đoán chính xác. Với $2.1 million được giao dịch trên "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?," giá này tổng hợp kiến thức và niềm tin tập thể của hàng nghìn người tham gia — thường vượt trội hơn thăm dò, dự báo chuyên gia và khảo sát truyền thống. Thị trường dự đoán như Polymarket có thành tích chính xác mạnh, đặc biệt khi sự kiện tiến gần ngày giải quyết. Ví dụ, Polymarket có điểm chính xác một tháng là 94%. Để biết thống kê mới nhất về độ chính xác dự đoán của Polymarket, truy cập trang độ chính xác trên Polymarket.
Để đặt lệnh đầu tiên trên "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?," đăng ký tài khoản Polymarket miễn phí và nạp tiền bằng crypto, thẻ tín dụng hoặc ghi nợ, hoặc chuyển khoản ngân hàng. Khi tài khoản đã được nạp, quay lại trang này, chọn kết quả bạn muốn giao dịch, nhập số tiền và nhấn "Giao dịch." Nếu bạn mới với thị trường dự đoán, nhấn liên kết "Cách hoạt động" ở đầu bất kỳ trang Polymarket nào để xem hướng dẫn từng bước nhanh về cách giao dịch.
Trên Polymarket, giá của mỗi kết quả đại diện cho xác suất ngụ ý của thị trường. Giá 33¢ cho "December 31, 2026" trong thị trường "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" nghĩa là trader tập thể tin rằng có khoảng 33% khả năng "December 31, 2026" sẽ là kết quả đúng. Nếu bạn mua cổ phần "Có" ở 33¢ và kết quả đúng, bạn nhận $1.00 mỗi cổ phần — lợi nhuận 67¢ mỗi cổ phần. Nếu sai, cổ phần đó giá trị $0.
Thị trường "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" dự kiến giải quyết vào hoặc khoảng Dec 31, 2026. Điều này có nghĩa giao dịch vẫn mở và tỷ lệ tiếp tục thay đổi khi thông tin mới xuất hiện cho đến ngày đó. Thời gian giải quyết chính xác phụ thuộc vào khi kết quả chính thức có sẵn, như được nêu trong phần "Quy tắc" trên trang này.
Thị trường "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?" có cộng đồng sôi động với 178 bình luận nơi trader chia sẻ phân tích, tranh luận kết quả và thảo luận diễn biến mới nhất. Cuộn xuống phần bình luận bên dưới để đọc ý kiến từ người tham gia khác. Bạn cũng có thể lọc theo "Người nắm giữ hàng đầu" để xem trader lớn nhất đang nắm giữ vị thế ở đâu, hoặc kiểm tra tab "Hoạt động" cho dữ liệu giao dịch theo thời gian thực.
Polymarket là thị trường dự đoán lớn nhất thế giới, nơi bạn có thể cập nhật thông tin và kiếm lợi nhuận từ kiến thức về sự kiện thực tế. Trader mua và bán cổ phần trên kết quả cho các chủ đề từ chính trị và bầu cử đến crypto, tài chính, thể thao, công nghệ và văn hoá, bao gồm các thị trường như "Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?." Giá phản ánh xác suất cộng đồng theo thời gian thực được hỗ trợ bởi niềm tin tài chính, thường cung cấp tín hiệu nhanh và chính xác hơn thăm dò, bình luận viên hoặc khảo sát truyền thống.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp