Israeli forces have expanded their territorial control in Gaza beyond the demarcation lines established under the October 2025 ceasefire, now holding roughly 64 percent of the territory while conducting targeted strikes and limited ground maneuvers. Israeli officials cite Hamas's refusal to fully disarm and its reported efforts to rebuild military capabilities as the primary drivers for preparing larger operations aimed at securing border areas and neutralizing threats. Recent military statements indicate plans for expanded ground actions to enforce compliance, though implementation remains tied to diplomatic pressures and internal security assessments. This dynamic shapes trader assessments of whether a major offensive—defined by large-scale troop movements into previously uncontrolled zones—will occur by the market's specified deadline.