Recent polling and the ruling coalition's push to dissolve the Knesset for elections by October 2026 have kept the race tight, with Likud and allied religious and right-wing parties hovering near 50-57 seats while the Bennett-Lapid Together bloc and remaining opposition forces fall short of a majority. Traders assign a 65 percent probability against a hung parliament because Israel's proportional representation system has repeatedly enabled extended coalition negotiations to produce stable governments even amid similar fragmentation, as seen in prior cycles. Key factors include ongoing bloc consolidation efforts, Arab party dynamics, and the absence of structural barriers that would force immediate re-votes, aligning with historical patterns where workable majorities emerged despite narrow margins.