Recent polls for Israel's October 27, 2026, Knesset election show Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing and religious bloc projected at 51–55 seats and the main Zionist opposition bloc at 52–55 seats, with Arab parties adding roughly 12–14 more. Neither side consistently reaches the 61-seat majority threshold in most surveys, though results vary by pollster and hinge on smaller parties crossing the 3.25% electoral threshold. Traders assigning 60.5% probability to "No" appear to weigh the likelihood of post-election coalition talks producing a government—via surplus agreements, selective Arab support, a minority arrangement, or unity options—over an immediate deadlock. Recent campaign dynamics, including Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party challenging Likud for the largest share and limited movement in bloc totals, reinforce expectations that arithmetic alone will not prevent government formation.