North Korea's early May 2026 constitutional amendments, which eliminated all references to reunification and formally defined South Korea as a separate hostile state, represent the primary driver behind the 96.9% implied probability that direct talks will not occur by June 30. This policy shift codifies Pyongyang's "two hostile states" framework, enabling it to reject inter-Korean engagement while prioritizing diplomatic and military ties with Russia and China. South Korean President Lee Jae Myung's administration has sustained overtures for peaceful coexistence, including expressions of regret over past incidents and proposals for dialogue, yet these have received no reciprocal response amid ongoing North Korean missile activity and border fortifications. The brief remaining window leaves little room for the official bilateral meetings or communications required for resolution. An unforeseen third-party mediation or sudden high-level announcement could theoretically alter the trajectory, though entrenched positions and the compressed timeline present substantial barriers.