Ongoing military operations, including mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, cities, and logistics targets through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without creating conditions for rapid compromise. Russian forces continue incremental advances in eastern regions while rejecting Ukrainian calls for talks absent full territorial concessions and limits on Kyiv’s security alignments. Kremlin statements in July explicitly ruled out near-term negotiations, aligning with Moscow’s insistence on outcomes based on prior maximalist proposals. Failed diplomatic efforts earlier in the year, including brief Geneva sessions that collapsed without progress, reinforced trader views that bridging core disputes over borders, neutrality, and guarantees will require extended attrition rather than swift resolution before 2027. High casualties and economic pressures on both sides have yet to shift positions enough to alter this consensus reflected in current pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật16% khả năng
$2,557,186 KL.
$2,557,186 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
16% khả năng
$2,557,186 KL.
$2,557,186 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations, including mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, cities, and logistics targets through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without creating conditions for rapid compromise. Russian forces continue incremental advances in eastern regions while rejecting Ukrainian calls for talks absent full territorial concessions and limits on Kyiv’s security alignments. Kremlin statements in July explicitly ruled out near-term negotiations, aligning with Moscow’s insistence on outcomes based on prior maximalist proposals. Failed diplomatic efforts earlier in the year, including brief Geneva sessions that collapsed without progress, reinforced trader views that bridging core disputes over borders, neutrality, and guarantees will require extended attrition rather than swift resolution before 2027. High casualties and economic pressures on both sides have yet to shift positions enough to alter this consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,557,186Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ongoing military operations, including mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, cities, and logistics targets through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without creating conditions for rapid compromise. Russian forces continue incremental advances in eastern regions while rejecting Ukrainian calls for talks absent full territorial concessions and limits on Kyiv’s security alignments. Kremlin statements in July explicitly ruled out near-term negotiations, aligning with Moscow’s insistence on outcomes based on prior maximalist proposals. Failed diplomatic efforts earlier in the year, including brief Geneva sessions that collapsed without progress, reinforced trader views that bridging core disputes over borders, neutrality, and guarantees will require extended attrition rather than swift resolution before 2027. High casualties and economic pressures on both sides have yet to shift positions enough to alter this consensus reflected in current pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,557,186Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing military operations, including mutual long-range strikes on energy infrastructure, cities, and logistics targets through mid-August 2026, have sustained battlefield momentum without creating conditions for rapid compromise. Russian forces continue incremental advances in eastern regions while rejecting Ukrainian calls for talks absent full territorial concessions and limits on Kyiv’s security alignments. Kremlin statements in July explicitly ruled out near-term negotiations, aligning with Moscow’s insistence on outcomes based on prior maximalist proposals. Failed diplomatic efforts earlier in the year, including brief Geneva sessions that collapsed without progress, reinforced trader views that bridging core disputes over borders, neutrality, and guarantees will require extended attrition rather than swift resolution before 2027. High casualties and economic pressures on both sides have yet to shift positions enough to alter this consensus reflected in current pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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