Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and its leadership’s consistent public stance anchor trader consensus against any near-term neutrality agreement. NATO’s July 2026 Ankara Summit reaffirmed the alliance’s support for Ukraine’s irreversible integration path while pledging EUR 70 billion in assistance, reinforcing Kyiv’s alignment without signaling concessions. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including recent trilateral talks, have produced no verified Ukrainian offer to forgo accession by late August, and Russia’s maximalist demands for permanent neutrality have not altered Ukraine’s position. The compressed timeline further limits realistic pathways to reversal before the resolution date. Late-breaking shifts could theoretically arise from sudden high-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments, yet current diplomatic and institutional signals indicate negligible probability of such an agreement materializing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1% khả năng
$22,848 KL.
$22,848 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
1% khả năng
$22,848 KL.
$22,848 KL.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and its leadership’s consistent public stance anchor trader consensus against any near-term neutrality agreement. NATO’s July 2026 Ankara Summit reaffirmed the alliance’s support for Ukraine’s irreversible integration path while pledging EUR 70 billion in assistance, reinforcing Kyiv’s alignment without signaling concessions. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including recent trilateral talks, have produced no verified Ukrainian offer to forgo accession by late August, and Russia’s maximalist demands for permanent neutrality have not altered Ukraine’s position. The compressed timeline further limits realistic pathways to reversal before the resolution date. Late-breaking shifts could theoretically arise from sudden high-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments, yet current diplomatic and institutional signals indicate negligible probability of such an agreement materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Thị trường mở: Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$22,848Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and its leadership’s consistent public stance anchor trader consensus against any near-term neutrality agreement. NATO’s July 2026 Ankara Summit reaffirmed the alliance’s support for Ukraine’s irreversible integration path while pledging EUR 70 billion in assistance, reinforcing Kyiv’s alignment without signaling concessions. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including recent trilateral talks, have produced no verified Ukrainian offer to forgo accession by late August, and Russia’s maximalist demands for permanent neutrality have not altered Ukraine’s position. The compressed timeline further limits realistic pathways to reversal before the resolution date. Late-breaking shifts could theoretically arise from sudden high-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments, yet current diplomatic and institutional signals indicate negligible probability of such an agreement materializing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine agrees not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.
Khối lượng
$22,848Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 18, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ukraine’s constitutional commitment to NATO membership and its leadership’s consistent public stance anchor trader consensus against any near-term neutrality agreement. NATO’s July 2026 Ankara Summit reaffirmed the alliance’s support for Ukraine’s irreversible integration path while pledging EUR 70 billion in assistance, reinforcing Kyiv’s alignment without signaling concessions. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including recent trilateral talks, have produced no verified Ukrainian offer to forgo accession by late August, and Russia’s maximalist demands for permanent neutrality have not altered Ukraine’s position. The compressed timeline further limits realistic pathways to reversal before the resolution date. Late-breaking shifts could theoretically arise from sudden high-level negotiations or unforeseen battlefield developments, yet current diplomatic and institutional signals indicate negligible probability of such an agreement materializing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp