Traders assign the highest implied probability to diplomatic meetings between Russian and Ukrainian representatives by December 31, reflecting a US-mediated push in September 2026 that produced tentative agreement on trilateral formats and limited de-escalation tracks covering energy infrastructure and Black Sea navigation. Recent statements from US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov, however, indicate those efforts have stalled over Moscow’s demands for full control of Donetsk and other maximalist conditions that Kyiv continues to reject. Multiple Ukrainian proposals for partial ceasefires remain on the table without reciprocal Russian commitment, while no direct bilateral summit has occurred. Upcoming US midterm timing and any further envoy visits could still influence whether substantive talks materialize before year-end.