Russia's personalized autocracy under President Vladimir Putin has sustained high regime stability into mid-2026 through centralized control over security services, the military command, and key elites, despite strains from the Ukraine conflict. Earlier intelligence reports from May 2026 highlighted tightened personal security measures and elite concerns, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, but no verified coup plotting or execution has emerged. Recent military leadership reshuffles and continued public operations reflect ongoing consolidation rather than fragmentation. Traders assign only a 6.5% implied probability to a 2026 attempt because historical patterns favor continuity via internal consensus, and current developments show no tipping-point triggers such as elite defections or mass unrest capable of altering that trajectory before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật7% khả năng
$118,347 KL.
$118,347 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
7% khả năng
$118,347 KL.
$118,347 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's personalized autocracy under President Vladimir Putin has sustained high regime stability into mid-2026 through centralized control over security services, the military command, and key elites, despite strains from the Ukraine conflict. Earlier intelligence reports from May 2026 highlighted tightened personal security measures and elite concerns, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, but no verified coup plotting or execution has emerged. Recent military leadership reshuffles and continued public operations reflect ongoing consolidation rather than fragmentation. Traders assign only a 6.5% implied probability to a 2026 attempt because historical patterns favor continuity via internal consensus, and current developments show no tipping-point triggers such as elite defections or mass unrest capable of altering that trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ET
Khối lượng
$118,347Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's personalized autocracy under President Vladimir Putin has sustained high regime stability into mid-2026 through centralized control over security services, the military command, and key elites, despite strains from the Ukraine conflict. Earlier intelligence reports from May 2026 highlighted tightened personal security measures and elite concerns, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, but no verified coup plotting or execution has emerged. Recent military leadership reshuffles and continued public operations reflect ongoing consolidation rather than fragmentation. Traders assign only a 6.5% implied probability to a 2026 attempt because historical patterns favor continuity via internal consensus, and current developments show no tipping-point triggers such as elite defections or mass unrest capable of altering that trajectory before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Russia at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Russian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Russian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$118,347Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 15, 2026, 3:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's personalized autocracy under President Vladimir Putin has sustained high regime stability into mid-2026 through centralized control over security services, the military command, and key elites, despite strains from the Ukraine conflict. Earlier intelligence reports from May 2026 highlighted tightened personal security measures and elite concerns, including references to former defense minister Sergei Shoigu, but no verified coup plotting or execution has emerged. Recent military leadership reshuffles and continued public operations reflect ongoing consolidation rather than fragmentation. Traders assign only a 6.5% implied probability to a 2026 attempt because historical patterns favor continuity via internal consensus, and current developments show no tipping-point triggers such as elite defections or mass unrest capable of altering that trajectory before year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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