Recent U.S.-China summits in September 2026, including a Washington meeting between Trump and Xi, have advanced bilateral diplomacy on trade and security issues. Kremlin statements have highlighted the possibility of Xi initiating a trilateral encounter with Trump and Putin at China's upcoming APEC summit, where Putin has confirmed attendance. Trump has also floated trilateral arms control discussions involving Russia and China. These developments, alongside ongoing diplomatic scheduling into late 2026, underpin trader assessments of elevated odds for the leaders appearing together before the end of 2026. Uncertainties around exact participation and timing remain key variables.