The high trader consensus on a "Yes" outcome stems primarily from official confirmation of a first-ever trilateral meeting among U.S. President Donald Trump, Chinese President Xi Jinping, and Russian President Vladimir Putin on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, scheduled for mid-November 2026. The White House has announced the gathering, with Beijing acknowledging ongoing communications, and the leaders are expected to appear together for discussions on nuclear non-proliferation and other topics. This event, occurring well before 2027, aligns directly with the market's resolution criteria. While the plans reflect sustained diplomatic engagement between the three powers, realistic factors that could still shift probabilities include last-minute cancellations due to health concerns, unresolved bilateral tensions, or procedural disputes over the meeting format.