Traders assign a 93% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or force posture changes indicative of imminent operations have appeared in recent months. PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ dropped sharply in 2026 compared with prior peaks, reflecting a shift toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure rather than escalation. Routine live-fire drills in the Strait and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises remain within established patterns without crossing into preparations for kinetic conflict. Economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and U.S. security commitments continue to elevate the costs of any offensive, while the narrow remaining window until December 2026 leaves little time for undetected shifts. Diplomatic messaging has also emphasized longer-term political channels over immediate confrontation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
7% khả năng
$3,212,799 KL.
$3,212,799 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
7% khả năng
$3,212,799 KL.
$3,212,799 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or force posture changes indicative of imminent operations have appeared in recent months. PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ dropped sharply in 2026 compared with prior peaks, reflecting a shift toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure rather than escalation. Routine live-fire drills in the Strait and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises remain within established patterns without crossing into preparations for kinetic conflict. Economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and U.S. security commitments continue to elevate the costs of any offensive, while the narrow remaining window until December 2026 leaves little time for undetected shifts. Diplomatic messaging has also emphasized longer-term political channels over immediate confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,212,799Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 93% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or force posture changes indicative of imminent operations have appeared in recent months. PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ dropped sharply in 2026 compared with prior peaks, reflecting a shift toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure rather than escalation. Routine live-fire drills in the Strait and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises remain within established patterns without crossing into preparations for kinetic conflict. Economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and U.S. security commitments continue to elevate the costs of any offensive, while the narrow remaining window until December 2026 leaves little time for undetected shifts. Diplomatic messaging has also emphasized longer-term political channels over immediate confrontation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$3,212,799Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93% probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027 primarily because no large-scale amphibious mobilization, logistics buildup, or force posture changes indicative of imminent operations have appeared in recent months. PLA aerial incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ dropped sharply in 2026 compared with prior peaks, reflecting a shift toward lower-intensity gray-zone pressure rather than escalation. Routine live-fire drills in the Strait and Taiwan’s Han Kuang exercises remain within established patterns without crossing into preparations for kinetic conflict. Economic interdependence, sanctions risks, and U.S. security commitments continue to elevate the costs of any offensive, while the narrow remaining window until December 2026 leaves little time for undetected shifts. Diplomatic messaging has also emphasized longer-term political channels over immediate confrontation.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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