US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and instead prioritize coercive measures short of war. This aligns with observable reductions in PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ during early 2026, a pivot toward diplomatic and economic pressure, and Beijing’s reframing of its narrative around Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Recent Trump-Xi engagements have emphasized trade cooperation while leaving US Taiwan policy unchanged, and Xi has reiterated reunification as a long-term goal without signaling imminent force. These developments underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,676,102 KL.
$2,676,102 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$2,676,102 KL.
$2,676,102 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and instead prioritize coercive measures short of war. This aligns with observable reductions in PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ during early 2026, a pivot toward diplomatic and economic pressure, and Beijing’s reframing of its narrative around Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Recent Trump-Xi engagements have emphasized trade cooperation while leaving US Taiwan policy unchanged, and Xi has reiterated reunification as a long-term goal without signaling imminent force. These developments underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,676,102Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and instead prioritize coercive measures short of war. This aligns with observable reductions in PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ during early 2026, a pivot toward diplomatic and economic pressure, and Beijing’s reframing of its narrative around Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Recent Trump-Xi engagements have emphasized trade cooperation while leaving US Taiwan policy unchanged, and Xi has reiterated reunification as a long-term goal without signaling imminent force. These developments underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$2,676,102Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US intelligence assessments, including the ODNI’s March 2026 Annual Threat Assessment, conclude that Chinese leaders have no current plan or fixed timeline for a Taiwan invasion in 2027 and instead prioritize coercive measures short of war. This aligns with observable reductions in PLA air incursions into Taiwan’s ADIZ during early 2026, a pivot toward diplomatic and economic pressure, and Beijing’s reframing of its narrative around Taiwan’s 2028 elections. Recent Trump-Xi engagements have emphasized trade cooperation while leaving US Taiwan policy unchanged, and Xi has reiterated reunification as a long-term goal without signaling imminent force. These developments underpin trader consensus that a military clash remains unlikely before the end of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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