Traders assign an implied 91.5 percent probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027, reflecting March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks firm invasion plans or fixed timelines despite ongoing gray-zone pressure in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People’s Liberation Army air and maritime activities have continued at normalized but lower levels through April and early May 2026, with fewer ADIZ incursions than in 2025 and no large-scale exercises reported recently. Diplomatic engagement, including the mid-May Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and prior talks with Taiwan opposition figures, has prioritized bilateral trade and regional stability over escalation. Internal People’s Liberation Army leadership challenges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases have further reinforced deterrence without triggering direct confrontation. Late shifts in cross-strait posture or major regional incidents could still alter assessments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCó
$1,789,798 KL.
$1,789,798 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
Có
$1,789,798 KL.
$1,789,798 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign an implied 91.5 percent probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027, reflecting March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks firm invasion plans or fixed timelines despite ongoing gray-zone pressure in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People’s Liberation Army air and maritime activities have continued at normalized but lower levels through April and early May 2026, with fewer ADIZ incursions than in 2025 and no large-scale exercises reported recently. Diplomatic engagement, including the mid-May Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and prior talks with Taiwan opposition figures, has prioritized bilateral trade and regional stability over escalation. Internal People’s Liberation Army leadership challenges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases have further reinforced deterrence without triggering direct confrontation. Late shifts in cross-strait posture or major regional incidents could still alter assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,789,798Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign an implied 91.5 percent probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027, reflecting March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks firm invasion plans or fixed timelines despite ongoing gray-zone pressure in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People’s Liberation Army air and maritime activities have continued at normalized but lower levels through April and early May 2026, with fewer ADIZ incursions than in 2025 and no large-scale exercises reported recently. Diplomatic engagement, including the mid-May Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and prior talks with Taiwan opposition figures, has prioritized bilateral trade and regional stability over escalation. Internal People’s Liberation Army leadership challenges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases have further reinforced deterrence without triggering direct confrontation. Late shifts in cross-strait posture or major regional incidents could still alter assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,789,798Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign an implied 91.5 percent probability against a China-Taiwan military clash before 2027, reflecting March 2026 U.S. intelligence assessments that Beijing lacks firm invasion plans or fixed timelines despite ongoing gray-zone pressure in the Taiwan Strait. Routine People’s Liberation Army air and maritime activities have continued at normalized but lower levels through April and early May 2026, with fewer ADIZ incursions than in 2025 and no large-scale exercises reported recently. Diplomatic engagement, including the mid-May Trump-Xi summit in Beijing and prior talks with Taiwan opposition figures, has prioritized bilateral trade and regional stability over escalation. Internal People’s Liberation Army leadership challenges and Taiwan’s incremental defense budget increases have further reinforced deterrence without triggering direct confrontation. Late shifts in cross-strait posture or major regional incidents could still alter assessments.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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