Recent US-China summit diplomacy in September 2026, including agreements to extend a trade truce, establish an AI safety channel, and advance military crisis communications, has reinforced trader expectations that both capitals prioritize managed competition over direct confrontation. Ongoing bilateral talks scheduled through APEC and G20 meetings, combined with China's internal military purges that have disrupted PLA readiness and US emphasis on deterrence-by-denial capabilities in the Indo-Pacific, further support the strong consensus against a clash before 2027. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unintended incident in the Taiwan Strait or South China Sea, delays or advances on Taiwan arms packages, or rapid escalation following US midterm elections.