Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash occurs before 2027, reflecting sustained deterrence, ongoing diplomatic channels, and the prevalence of gray-zone activities rather than open conflict. Recent developments include intensified Chinese air and maritime incursions around Taiwan, live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea patrols, alongside US-Philippines joint exercises and alliance strengthening in the Indo-Pacific. High-level engagements, such as 2026 summits and military-to-military talks, have emphasized crisis management and de-escalation mechanisms despite persistent competition over Taiwan and regional claims. Economic interdependence and mutual recognition of escalation risks further support this consensus. Plausible shifts could stem from miscalculation during exercises, abrupt policy changes, or a major incident involving allies that draws direct intervention.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS x China Military clash before 2027?
US x China Military clash before 2027?
4% khả năng
$194,565 KL.
$194,565 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
4% khả năng
$194,565 KL.
$194,565 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash occurs before 2027, reflecting sustained deterrence, ongoing diplomatic channels, and the prevalence of gray-zone activities rather than open conflict. Recent developments include intensified Chinese air and maritime incursions around Taiwan, live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea patrols, alongside US-Philippines joint exercises and alliance strengthening in the Indo-Pacific. High-level engagements, such as 2026 summits and military-to-military talks, have emphasized crisis management and de-escalation mechanisms despite persistent competition over Taiwan and regional claims. Economic interdependence and mutual recognition of escalation risks further support this consensus. Plausible shifts could stem from miscalculation during exercises, abrupt policy changes, or a major incident involving allies that draws direct intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Khối lượng
$194,565Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash occurs before 2027, reflecting sustained deterrence, ongoing diplomatic channels, and the prevalence of gray-zone activities rather than open conflict. Recent developments include intensified Chinese air and maritime incursions around Taiwan, live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea patrols, alongside US-Philippines joint exercises and alliance strengthening in the Indo-Pacific. High-level engagements, such as 2026 summits and military-to-military talks, have emphasized crisis management and de-escalation mechanisms despite persistent competition over Taiwan and regional claims. Economic interdependence and mutual recognition of escalation risks further support this consensus. Plausible shifts could stem from miscalculation during exercises, abrupt policy changes, or a major incident involving allies that draws direct intervention.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and the United States between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and United States military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the Chinese military and the United States Coast Guard is part of the United States military.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$194,565Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 14, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.7% probability that no direct US-China military clash occurs before 2027, reflecting sustained deterrence, ongoing diplomatic channels, and the prevalence of gray-zone activities rather than open conflict. Recent developments include intensified Chinese air and maritime incursions around Taiwan, live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, and South China Sea patrols, alongside US-Philippines joint exercises and alliance strengthening in the Indo-Pacific. High-level engagements, such as 2026 summits and military-to-military talks, have emphasized crisis management and de-escalation mechanisms despite persistent competition over Taiwan and regional claims. Economic interdependence and mutual recognition of escalation risks further support this consensus. Plausible shifts could stem from miscalculation during exercises, abrupt policy changes, or a major incident involving allies that draws direct intervention.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp