Ongoing Iranian attacks on tankers, combined with a U.S. naval blockade and Iranian permit requirements, have kept AIS-visible commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz at roughly 10% of pre-crisis levels as of mid-October 2026, with daily transits averaging under 9 vessels versus a normal 80-plus. This sustained disruption since late February stems from the active U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, recent strikes on outbound tankers, and failed mediation efforts, driving the 93.5% market-implied probability that normal traffic will not resume by November 30. Oil flows remain suppressed and war-risk premiums elevated, reflecting trader assessment of entrenched positions. A rapid diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire could still alter the trajectory before month-end, though recent escalations and stalled talks make such an outcome improbable.