Incumbent KMT Mayor Chang San-cheng maintains a commanding lead in the Taoyuan mayoral race ahead of the November 28, 2026, election, with trader consensus reflecting his incumbency, name recognition, and perceived stronger path to victory. Recent polls show a narrow gap in head-to-head support against DPP challenger Huang Shih-chieh, yet surveys indicate voters view Chang as far more likely to win overall. His campaign has emphasized infrastructure projects, MRT expansion, aerotropolis development, and social welfare measures, while Huang has focused on transportation improvements and support for new immigrants through joint events with other DPP candidates. Late shifts in turnout among key blocs or unexpected developments in the final weeks could still narrow the outcome.