The narrow 176-173 seat opposition majority after the September 2026 election has prolonged coalition talks, with Social Democrats leader Magdalena Andersson exploring red-green options alongside the Centre Party while Ulf Kristersson retains an exploratory mandate. Traders assign the highest probability to M + KD + L + C because the Centre Party has signaled resistance to any arrangement granting the Left Party ministerial posts or creating excessive dependence on Sweden Democrats support, and SD's November 6 concession dropping cabinet demands has reopened space for a centre-right minority government tolerated by C. Ongoing red-green discussions through November 12, combined with the Centre Party's deadline for policy programs the next day, keep several S-led variants viable but secondary in current pricing, reflecting procedural uncertainty around speaker votes and bloc alignments.