Recent polling from late October and early November 2026 shows Javier Milei leading first-round voting intention at roughly 28-33% while Axel Kicillof trails but narrows the gap to 16-30% depending on the survey, with Peronist support remaining fragmented among Kicillof, Sergio Massa, and others. Runoff simulations between Milei and Kicillof consistently produce near-ties or margins inside the margin of error, reflecting high undecided and blank-ballot shares. Milei’s approval hovers near 36% amid persistent economic dissatisfaction, while Kicillof benefits from strong provincial performance in Buenos Aires. These dynamics underpin trader pricing that places Milei ahead yet leaves the outcome highly competitive a year before the October 2027 vote.