National secured the largest seat tally on preliminary results from the November 7 election, winning 42 electorate seats under the MMP system despite a narrow popular-vote deficit to Labour. This produced an overhang that delivered the incumbent National–ACT–New Zealand First coalition 67 seats in the 131-seat Parliament, just above the 66-seat majority threshold. Trader consensus reflects the structural advantage of electorate wins and the limited time remaining before official results on November 27. Special votes still to be counted typically favor left-leaning parties and could narrow or erase the bloc margin, while post-election negotiations with minor parties such as the Opportunity Party introduce residual uncertainty over government formation.