Recent polling ahead of Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election shows the center-left opposition bloc, anchored by the Social Democrats under Magdalena Andersson, holding a consistent lead of roughly 50–53 percent against the governing right-wing bloc’s 45–47 percent. Andersson’s party remains the largest single force at around 30–32 percent, positioning her as the frontrunner to lead the next government and return as prime minister. Incumbent Ulf Kristersson’s Moderates trail in the low-to-mid teens, limiting his prospects even within a potential right-leaning coalition that includes Sweden Democrats support. Traders’ consensus assigns Andersson an 85 percent implied probability, reflecting the stable bloc advantage and limited time for major shifts before the vote. Coalition negotiations after the election remain the primary uncertainty that could still alter outcomes.