Recent polling averages from early August place Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead for first-round votes on October 4, while Renan Santos has edged ahead of Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema in several surveys by drawing younger, digitally engaged right-wing voters disillusioned with both the government and established opposition figures. Santos’s formal nomination by the Missão party and consistent social-media mobilization have accelerated this consolidation, outpacing Caiado’s center-right PSD bid and Zema’s NOVO profile in the sub-5% tier. Traders view these trends as the primary driver of Santos’s leading implied probability for third place, with limited movement expected absent major debate performances or last-minute endorsements before the vote.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRenan Santos 55%
Ronaldo Caiado 37%
Romeu Zema 4.5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 3.8%
$547,193 KL.
$547,193 KL.
Renan Santos
55%
Ronaldo Caiado
37%
Romeu Zema
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro
4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
Renan Santos 55%
Ronaldo Caiado 37%
Romeu Zema 4.5%
Flávio Bolsonaro 3.8%
$547,193 KL.
$547,193 KL.
Renan Santos
55%
Ronaldo Caiado
37%
Romeu Zema
5%
Flávio Bolsonaro
4%
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro
<1%
Geraldo Alckmin
<1%
Fernando Haddad
<1%
Tarcisio de Freitas
<1%
Jair Bolsonaro
<1%
Aldo Rebelo
<1%
Tereza Cristina
<1%
Michelle Bolsonaro
<1%
Ratinho Júnior
<1%
Camilo Santana
<1%
Eduardo Leite
<1%
Helder Barbalho
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the third-most valid votes in the first round of this election.
The named candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' last names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling averages from early August place Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro well ahead for first-round votes on October 4, while Renan Santos has edged ahead of Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema in several surveys by drawing younger, digitally engaged right-wing voters disillusioned with both the government and established opposition figures. Santos’s formal nomination by the Missão party and consistent social-media mobilization have accelerated this consolidation, outpacing Caiado’s center-right PSD bid and Zema’s NOVO profile in the sub-5% tier. Traders view these trends as the primary driver of Santos’s leading implied probability for third place, with limited movement expected absent major debate performances or last-minute endorsements before the vote.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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