Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Fernando Haddad 9.5%
Kim Kataguiri 4.7%
Márcio França 2.0%
$20,394 KL.
$20,394 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Fernando Haddad
10%
Kim Kataguiri
5%
Márcio França
2%
Erika Hilton
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Fernando Haddad 9.5%
Kim Kataguiri 4.7%
Márcio França 2.0%
$20,394 KL.
$20,394 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$10,695 KL.
82%
Fernando Haddad
$3,042 KL.
10%
Kim Kataguiri
$1,581 KL.
5%
Márcio França
$2,190 KL.
2%
Erika Hilton
$2,885 KL.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,394Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$20,394Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas commands 82.5% trader consensus on Polymarket, driven by late-April polls from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, Vox, and APEX/FUTURA showing him leading first-round scenarios 38-48% to Fernando Haddad's 26-33%, with second-round margins of 53-54% to 34-37%. His approval ratings hit 54-65% across surveys, underscoring incumbency strength and effective governance perception in Brazil's largest state ahead of the October 4, 2026, general election. Haddad's 9.5% reflects PT challenges and higher rejection, while Kim Kataguiri (4.7%), Márcio França (2.0%), and Erika Hilton (1.3%) trail amid fragmented opposition. National trends or scandals could narrow gaps, but current polling aggregates favor re-election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp