Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting Republican executive, combined with consistent double-digit margins in recent polls such as Genial/Quaest and Ideia/ACSP showing him at 48–52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT. Traders reflect this in elevated probabilities, viewing his path to victory as structurally favored ahead of the October 4 first round. Primary factors include established voter support across interior municipalities and the absence of major shifts in opposition momentum. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen scandals, health developments, late legal rulings, or sharp national economic or political changes that mobilize turnout or consolidate challengers like Haddad, Erika Hilton, or Kim Kataguiri in a potential runoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,031 KL.
$279,031 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
94%
Fernando Haddad
4%
Erika Hilton
1%
Kim Kataguiri
<1%
Márcio França
<1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 94%
Fernando Haddad 4.0%
Erika Hilton <1%
Kim Kataguiri <1%
$279,031 KL.
$279,031 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$122,996 KL.
94%
Fernando Haddad
$46,886 KL.
4%
Erika Hilton
$22,704 KL.
1%
Kim Kataguiri
$75,777 KL.
<1%
Márcio França
$10,668 KL.
<1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting Republican executive, combined with consistent double-digit margins in recent polls such as Genial/Quaest and Ideia/ACSP showing him at 48–52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT. Traders reflect this in elevated probabilities, viewing his path to victory as structurally favored ahead of the October 4 first round. Primary factors include established voter support across interior municipalities and the absence of major shifts in opposition momentum. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen scandals, health developments, late legal rulings, or sharp national economic or political changes that mobilize turnout or consolidate challengers like Haddad, Erika Hilton, or Kim Kataguiri in a potential runoff.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$279,031Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting Republican executive, combined with consistent double-digit margins in recent polls such as Genial/Quaest and Ideia/ACSP showing him at 48–52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT. Traders reflect this in elevated probabilities, viewing his path to victory as structurally favored ahead of the October 4 first round. Primary factors include established voter support across interior municipalities and the absence of major shifts in opposition momentum. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen scandals, health developments, late legal rulings, or sharp national economic or political changes that mobilize turnout or consolidate challengers like Haddad, Erika Hilton, or Kim Kataguiri in a potential runoff.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$279,031Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas holds a commanding lead in the São Paulo governor race due to his incumbency advantage as the sitting Republican executive, combined with consistent double-digit margins in recent polls such as Genial/Quaest and Ideia/ACSP showing him at 48–52% against Fernando Haddad of the PT. Traders reflect this in elevated probabilities, viewing his path to victory as structurally favored ahead of the October 4 first round. Primary factors include established voter support across interior municipalities and the absence of major shifts in opposition momentum. Scenarios that could still alter the outcome include unforeseen scandals, health developments, late legal rulings, or sharp national economic or political changes that mobilize turnout or consolidate challengers like Haddad, Erika Hilton, or Kim Kataguiri in a potential runoff.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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