Recent polling from early to mid-August shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly 5–10 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, aligning with trader emphasis on those victory margins. Lula’s advantage stems from his incumbency, established voter base, and policy initiatives on debt relief and fuel prices, while Bolsonaro carries the Liberal Party banner with endorsement from his father but has faced lingering effects from earlier audio controversies and family tensions. The race remains polarized ahead of the October 4 first round, with smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and governors like Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas polling in single digits and unlikely to alter the top-two dynamic. The campaign’s formal start on August 16 introduces potential for further shifts in turnout and undecided voters that could compress or widen Lula’s projected margin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBrazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Lula da Silva 5-10% 36%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 9.1%
$323,353 KL.
$323,353 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
37%
Lula da Silva <5%
21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
6%
Renan Santos Victory
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
1%
Other
1%
Lula da Silva 5-10% 36%
Lula da Silva 10-15% 26.8%
Lula da Silva <5% 21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10% 9.1%
$323,353 KL.
$323,353 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Lula da Silva 15%+
$12,152 KL.
5%
Lula da Silva 10-15%
$26,843 KL.
27%
Lula da Silva 5-10%
$18,163 KL.
37%
Lula da Silva <5%
$19,690 KL.
21%
Flávio Bolsonaro 10%+
$6,355 KL.
4%
Flávio Bolsonaro 5-10%
$6,104 KL.
7%
Flávio Bolsonaro <5%
$10,511 KL.
6%
Renan Santos Victory
$210,825 KL.
1%
Tarcisio de Freitas Victory
$3,532 KL.
<1%
Ratinho Júnior Victory
$4,155 KL.
1%
Other
$5,022 KL.
1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early to mid-August shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly 5–10 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, aligning with trader emphasis on those victory margins. Lula’s advantage stems from his incumbency, established voter base, and policy initiatives on debt relief and fuel prices, while Bolsonaro carries the Liberal Party banner with endorsement from his father but has faced lingering effects from earlier audio controversies and family tensions. The race remains polarized ahead of the October 4 first round, with smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and governors like Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas polling in single digits and unlikely to alter the top-two dynamic. The campaign’s formal start on August 16 introduces potential for further shifts in turnout and undecided voters that could compress or widen Lula’s projected margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$323,353Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from early to mid-August shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly 5–10 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, aligning with trader emphasis on those victory margins. Lula’s advantage stems from his incumbency, established voter base, and policy initiatives on debt relief and fuel prices, while Bolsonaro carries the Liberal Party banner with endorsement from his father but has faced lingering effects from earlier audio controversies and family tensions. The race remains polarized ahead of the October 4 first round, with smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and governors like Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas polling in single digits and unlikely to alter the top-two dynamic. The campaign’s formal start on August 16 introduces potential for further shifts in turnout and undecided voters that could compress or widen Lula’s projected margin.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$323,353Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent polling from early to mid-August shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva holding a first-round lead of roughly 5–10 points over Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, aligning with trader emphasis on those victory margins. Lula’s advantage stems from his incumbency, established voter base, and policy initiatives on debt relief and fuel prices, while Bolsonaro carries the Liberal Party banner with endorsement from his father but has faced lingering effects from earlier audio controversies and family tensions. The race remains polarized ahead of the October 4 first round, with smaller candidates such as Renan Santos and governors like Ratinho Júnior and Tarcísio de Freitas polling in single digits and unlikely to alter the top-two dynamic. The campaign’s formal start on August 16 introduces potential for further shifts in turnout and undecided voters that could compress or widen Lula’s projected margin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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