The Federal District’s electorate has historically favored right-leaning candidates aligned with Bolsonarism, a pattern reflected in trader pricing that assigns Flavio Bolsonaro a clear lead for first place in the October 4 first round. Recent local surveys, including Real Time Big Data polling from mid-August, show him statistically tied or competitive with President Lula among DF voters in first-round scenarios, with stronger advantages appearing in second-round matchups. Lula’s national polling edge has not translated locally, where rejection levels remain elevated. Fragmented support for other registered candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema has kept their implied probabilities low. Official party conventions concluded in July, locking in the field ahead of the campaign period that began in mid-August, with no major DF-specific shifts reported since.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Federal District
Flavio Bolsonaro 72%
Lula 26%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$22,051 KL.
$22,051 KL.
Flavio Bolsonaro
72%
Lula
26%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
Flavio Bolsonaro 72%
Lula 26%
Pablo Marçal <1%
Hertz Dias <1%
$22,051 KL.
$22,051 KL.
Flavio Bolsonaro
72%
Lula
26%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
Hertz Dias
<1%
Clariana Barao
<1%
Edmilson Costa
<1%
Escritor Augusto Cury
<1%
Renan Santos
<1%
Ronaldo Caiado
<1%
Rui Costa Pimenta
<1%
Samara
<1%
Veterinário Wilson Grassi
<1%
Zema
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Federal District.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Federal District. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District’s electorate has historically favored right-leaning candidates aligned with Bolsonarism, a pattern reflected in trader pricing that assigns Flavio Bolsonaro a clear lead for first place in the October 4 first round. Recent local surveys, including Real Time Big Data polling from mid-August, show him statistically tied or competitive with President Lula among DF voters in first-round scenarios, with stronger advantages appearing in second-round matchups. Lula’s national polling edge has not translated locally, where rejection levels remain elevated. Fragmented support for other registered candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, and Romeu Zema has kept their implied probabilities low. Official party conventions concluded in July, locking in the field ahead of the campaign period that began in mid-August, with no major DF-specific shifts reported since.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Liệu Flávio Bolsonaro có về nhì trong vòng một của cuộc bầu cử tổng thống Brazil năm 2026 không?
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rio de Janeiro?
Will Renan Santos finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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