**KPRF leads the market for second place in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election with an 82.5% implied probability, well ahead of New People and LDPR.** United Russia is expected to secure a commanding majority through its control of state resources, media access, and administrative mechanisms, leaving the contest focused on the runner-up among systemic opposition parties. KPRF maintains this position due to its established organizational infrastructure, regional strongholds, and historical role as the primary parliamentary alternative, despite recent VTsIOM and other polling showing New People occasionally polling near or above it at around 10-13%. LDPR trails closely in surveys but lacks comparable momentum in trader assessments. The election's mixed system, 5% threshold, and managed environment favor parties with proven turnout machinery, while newer entrants like New People face structural limits in converting polling into seat share. No major shifts in the past month have altered this consensus among market participants.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtRussia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 83%
New People (NL) 8.6%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.8%
United Russia (ER) <1%
$313,842 KL.
$313,842 KL.
Sep 20, 2026
United Russia (ER)
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
83%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
8%
New People (NL)
9%
Rodina
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
<1%
Yabloko
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) 83%
New People (NL) 8.6%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) 7.8%
United Russia (ER) <1%
$313,842 KL.
$313,842 KL.
Sep 20, 2026
United Russia (ER)
$37,232 KL.
1%
Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)
$81,518 KL.
83%
A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)
$12,687 KL.
<1%
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
$69,736 KL.
8%
New People (NL)
$42,225 KL.
9%
Rodina
$19,680 KL.
<1%
Civic Platform (GP)
$11,575 KL.
<1%
Yabloko
$39,191 KL.
1%
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.**KPRF leads the market for second place in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election with an 82.5% implied probability, well ahead of New People and LDPR.** United Russia is expected to secure a commanding majority through its control of state resources, media access, and administrative mechanisms, leaving the contest focused on the runner-up among systemic opposition parties. KPRF maintains this position due to its established organizational infrastructure, regional strongholds, and historical role as the primary parliamentary alternative, despite recent VTsIOM and other polling showing New People occasionally polling near or above it at around 10-13%. LDPR trails closely in surveys but lacks comparable momentum in trader assessments. The election's mixed system, 5% threshold, and managed environment favor parties with proven turnout machinery, while newer entrants like New People face structural limits in converting polling into seat share. No major shifts in the past month have altered this consensus among market participants.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Thị trường mở: Apr 21, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$313,842Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.**KPRF leads the market for second place in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election with an 82.5% implied probability, well ahead of New People and LDPR.** United Russia is expected to secure a commanding majority through its control of state resources, media access, and administrative mechanisms, leaving the contest focused on the runner-up among systemic opposition parties. KPRF maintains this position due to its established organizational infrastructure, regional strongholds, and historical role as the primary parliamentary alternative, despite recent VTsIOM and other polling showing New People occasionally polling near or above it at around 10-13%. LDPR trails closely in surveys but lacks comparable momentum in trader assessments. The election's mixed system, 5% threshold, and managed environment favor parties with proven turnout machinery, while newer entrants like New People face structural limits in converting polling into seat share. No major shifts in the past month have altered this consensus among market participants.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Khối lượng
$313,842Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 21, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**KPRF leads the market for second place in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election with an 82.5% implied probability, well ahead of New People and LDPR.** United Russia is expected to secure a commanding majority through its control of state resources, media access, and administrative mechanisms, leaving the contest focused on the runner-up among systemic opposition parties. KPRF maintains this position due to its established organizational infrastructure, regional strongholds, and historical role as the primary parliamentary alternative, despite recent VTsIOM and other polling showing New People occasionally polling near or above it at around 10-13%. LDPR trails closely in surveys but lacks comparable momentum in trader assessments. The election's mixed system, 5% threshold, and managed environment favor parties with proven turnout machinery, while newer entrants like New People face structural limits in converting polling into seat share. No major shifts in the past month have altered this consensus among market participants.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
43%
Liệu Nước Nga Thống Nhất (ER) có giành được nhiều ghế nhất trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Nga tiếp theo không?
98%
Có
Liệu Đảng Nước Nga Thống Nhất (ER) có giành được nhiều ghế nhất trong cuộc bầu cử quốc hội Nga sắp tới không?
71%
Có
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