Eduardo Paes (PSD) holds a commanding lead in recent polling for the Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race, with first-round support ranging from 34% to 44% across AtlasIntel, Quaest, and Datafolha surveys conducted in late September 2026, well ahead of Douglas Ruas (PL) at 25–35%. Paes benefits from high name recognition and favorable head-to-head matchups projecting 51–54% in runoffs. Ruas has narrowed the gap modestly through incremental gains but faces higher rejection rates. Anthony Garotinho (Republicanos) trails at 6–9% amid ongoing legal challenges to his candidacy over prior administrative convictions, with the TRE-RJ decision under appeal to the TSE. Other listed contenders register minimal support below 3%. The election timeline and potential runoff dynamics reinforce trader consensus around Paes as the frontrunner.