Recent polling has positioned Augusto Cury, the Avante party candidate and first-time contender, as a third-place option in Brazil's October 2026 presidential first round, with support fluctuating between roughly 6% and 10% across Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-September. His gains stemmed primarily from late-August television debate exposure and social media visibility, which drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro polarization. Subsequent surveys show some stabilization or modest softening, reflecting the challenges of sustaining momentum for a candidate without prior elected experience amid a still-fragmented field. Prediction market pricing aligns with this range by assigning the highest probability to shares above 6%, while leaving room for downside scenarios if undecided voters or campaign dynamics shift before election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật4-6% 38%
2-4% 15%
1-2% 7%
<1% 2.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
25%
1-2%
23%
2-4%
15%
4-6%
27%
6%+
45%
4-6% 38%
2-4% 15%
1-2% 7%
<1% 2.0%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 4, 2026
<1%
$76 KL.
25%
1-2%
$268 KL.
23%
2-4%
$431 KL.
15%
4-6%
$155 KL.
27%
6%+
$783 KL.
45%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling has positioned Augusto Cury, the Avante party candidate and first-time contender, as a third-place option in Brazil's October 2026 presidential first round, with support fluctuating between roughly 6% and 10% across Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-September. His gains stemmed primarily from late-August television debate exposure and social media visibility, which drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro polarization. Subsequent surveys show some stabilization or modest softening, reflecting the challenges of sustaining momentum for a candidate without prior elected experience amid a still-fragmented field. Prediction market pricing aligns with this range by assigning the highest probability to shares above 6%, while leaving room for downside scenarios if undecided voters or campaign dynamics shift before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,712Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling has positioned Augusto Cury, the Avante party candidate and first-time contender, as a third-place option in Brazil's October 2026 presidential first round, with support fluctuating between roughly 6% and 10% across Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-September. His gains stemmed primarily from late-August television debate exposure and social media visibility, which drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro polarization. Subsequent surveys show some stabilization or modest softening, reflecting the challenges of sustaining momentum for a candidate without prior elected experience amid a still-fragmented field. Prediction market pricing aligns with this range by assigning the highest probability to shares above 6%, while leaving room for downside scenarios if undecided voters or campaign dynamics shift before election day.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Augusto Cury in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$1,712Ngày kết thúc
Oct 5, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 15, 2026, 10:28 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling has positioned Augusto Cury, the Avante party candidate and first-time contender, as a third-place option in Brazil's October 2026 presidential first round, with support fluctuating between roughly 6% and 10% across Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel surveys through mid-September. His gains stemmed primarily from late-August television debate exposure and social media visibility, which drew voters seeking an alternative to the Lula-Flávio Bolsonaro polarization. Subsequent surveys show some stabilization or modest softening, reflecting the challenges of sustaining momentum for a candidate without prior elected experience amid a still-fragmented field. Prediction market pricing aligns with this range by assigning the highest probability to shares above 6%, while leaving room for downside scenarios if undecided voters or campaign dynamics shift before election day.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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77%
Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
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