**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNo Change 49%
25 bps decrease 32%
50+ bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 5.5%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
50+ bps increase
5%
25 bps increase
5%
No Change
49%
25 bps decrease
32%
50+ bps decrease
12%
No Change 49%
25 bps decrease 32%
50+ bps decrease 12%
25 bps increase 5.5%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 4, 2026
50+ bps increase
$115 KL.
5%
25 bps increase
$128 KL.
5%
No Change
$898 KL.
49%
25 bps decrease
$125 KL.
32%
50+ bps decrease
$274 KL.
12%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,539Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 3-4, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$1,539Ngày kết thúc
Nov 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 4, 2026, 6:30 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Brazil's Central Bank (BCB) Copom faces a closely balanced November Selic decision amid inflation at 4.64% in June 2026—still well above the 3% target—despite modest easing from May's 4.72% reading.** Elevated 2026 inflation expectations near 5.3%, resilient economic activity, and a tight labor market support the current 49% market-implied probability of no change, following three consecutive 25 bp cuts that brought the policy rate to 14.25% in June. The BCB's gradual calibration cycle, highlighted in recent statements emphasizing data dependence and risks from energy prices, positions a 25 bp decrease at 31.5% as the next most likely outcome if incoming IPCA prints and Focus survey updates show continued moderation. Key catalysts include the August 5 meeting (widely expected to deliver another 25 bp cut to 14.00%), subsequent inflation releases, and the policy horizon extending toward 2027 projections around 3.7%. Market-implied odds reflect trader caution over unanchored expectations versus the restrictive stance of real rates near 9-10%.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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