André do Prado secured a commanding lead for second place in the São Paulo Federal Senate election held on October 4, 2026, through strong alignment with Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and the conservative coalition that consolidated support behind the PL and PP tickets. Final vote tallies showed him at roughly 29.3% of valid votes, narrowly behind Guilherme Derrite while outpacing Simone Tebet and Marina Silva by wide margins. Pre-election surveys from Datafolha and Quaest had portrayed a close four-way contest days earlier, yet the results reflected effective campaign consolidation and higher turnout among aligned voters. Trader consensus on Polymarket mirrors the near-complete official count from the TSE. Any remaining uncertainty centers on final certification, minor recount adjustments, or disputes over blank and null ballots that could theoretically shift narrow margins.