The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (UNIÃO) reflects a rematch shaped by Bahia’s polarized electorate and shifting national alignments. Recent polls, including a Quaest survey placing them within a few points, show Rodrigues benefiting from steady approval on education and infrastructure alongside mayoral endorsements that have grown since early 2026, while Neto has consolidated right-leaning support following his party’s break with the Lula administration and alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort. The August 9 Band Bahia debate highlighted overlapping priorities on health, security, and the environment without producing a clear break. Trader pricing near 49–48 percent captures this balance; further separation could emerge from subsequent debates, turnout patterns among swing municipalities, or national campaign spillover before the October 4 first-round vote.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtJerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 KL.
$107,708 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
50%
ACM Neto
48%
Kleber Rosa
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
<1%
João Roma
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
<1%
Rui Costa
<1%
Jerônimo Rodrigues 50%
ACM Neto 48%
Kleber Rosa <1%
José Carlos Aleluia <1%
$107,708 KL.
$107,708 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Jerônimo Rodrigues
$34,629 KL.
50%
ACM Neto
$35,900 KL.
48%
Kleber Rosa
$11,407 KL.
<1%
José Carlos Aleluia
$9,514 KL.
<1%
João Roma
$5,186 KL.
<1%
Bruno Soares Reis
$5,325 KL.
<1%
Rui Costa
$5,747 KL.
<1%
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (UNIÃO) reflects a rematch shaped by Bahia’s polarized electorate and shifting national alignments. Recent polls, including a Quaest survey placing them within a few points, show Rodrigues benefiting from steady approval on education and infrastructure alongside mayoral endorsements that have grown since early 2026, while Neto has consolidated right-leaning support following his party’s break with the Lula administration and alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort. The August 9 Band Bahia debate highlighted overlapping priorities on health, security, and the environment without producing a clear break. Trader pricing near 49–48 percent captures this balance; further separation could emerge from subsequent debates, turnout patterns among swing municipalities, or national campaign spillover before the October 4 first-round vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Khối lượng
$107,708Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (UNIÃO) reflects a rematch shaped by Bahia’s polarized electorate and shifting national alignments. Recent polls, including a Quaest survey placing them within a few points, show Rodrigues benefiting from steady approval on education and infrastructure alongside mayoral endorsements that have grown since early 2026, while Neto has consolidated right-leaning support following his party’s break with the Lula administration and alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort. The August 9 Band Bahia debate highlighted overlapping priorities on health, security, and the environment without producing a clear break. Trader pricing near 49–48 percent captures this balance; further separation could emerge from subsequent debates, turnout patterns among swing municipalities, or national campaign spillover before the October 4 first-round vote.
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$107,708Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight contest between incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) and ACM Neto (UNIÃO) reflects a rematch shaped by Bahia’s polarized electorate and shifting national alignments. Recent polls, including a Quaest survey placing them within a few points, show Rodrigues benefiting from steady approval on education and infrastructure alongside mayoral endorsements that have grown since early 2026, while Neto has consolidated right-leaning support following his party’s break with the Lula administration and alignment with Flávio Bolsonaro’s presidential effort. The August 9 Band Bahia debate highlighted overlapping priorities on health, security, and the environment without producing a clear break. Trader pricing near 49–48 percent captures this balance; further separation could emerge from subsequent debates, turnout patterns among swing municipalities, or national campaign spillover before the October 4 first-round vote.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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