Persistent high Selic rates near 14.5% after initial easing continue to restrain Brazil's Q2 2026 growth trajectory following the 1.1% QoQ expansion in Q1. Tight monetary policy, moderating household consumption, and normalizing agricultural output amid a robust but cooling labor market underpin the closely matched trader consensus across mid-range outcomes from 0.3%–1.4%. Recent central bank communications highlight caution over unanchored inflation around 4.4%, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 1.6%–2.3% from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. The June 17 Copom decision and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among these competitive bands.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật1.2%–1.4% 53%
≥1.5% 53%
0.3%–0.5% 52%
<0.0% 31%
MỚI
MỚI
<0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.2%
22%
0.3%–0.5%
52%
0.6%–0.8%
51%
0.9%–1.1%
17%
1.2%–1.4%
53%
≥1.5%
53%
1.2%–1.4% 53%
≥1.5% 53%
0.3%–0.5% 52%
<0.0% 31%
MỚI
MỚI
<0.0%
$106 KL.
22%
0.0%–0.2%
$70 KL.
22%
0.3%–0.5%
$70 KL.
52%
0.6%–0.8%
$69 KL.
51%
0.9%–1.1%
$69 KL.
17%
1.2%–1.4%
$101 KL.
53%
≥1.5%
$101 KL.
53%
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPersistent high Selic rates near 14.5% after initial easing continue to restrain Brazil's Q2 2026 growth trajectory following the 1.1% QoQ expansion in Q1. Tight monetary policy, moderating household consumption, and normalizing agricultural output amid a robust but cooling labor market underpin the closely matched trader consensus across mid-range outcomes from 0.3%–1.4%. Recent central bank communications highlight caution over unanchored inflation around 4.4%, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 1.6%–2.3% from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. The June 17 Copom decision and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among these competitive bands.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Thị trường mở: Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Khối lượng
$587Thị trường mở
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlPersistent high Selic rates near 14.5% after initial easing continue to restrain Brazil's Q2 2026 growth trajectory following the 1.1% QoQ expansion in Q1. Tight monetary policy, moderating household consumption, and normalizing agricultural output amid a robust but cooling labor market underpin the closely matched trader consensus across mid-range outcomes from 0.3%–1.4%. Recent central bank communications highlight caution over unanchored inflation around 4.4%, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 1.6%–2.3% from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. The June 17 Copom decision and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among these competitive bands.
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the prior quarter (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026.
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html
If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the prior quarter If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the prior quarter to only one decimal point (e.g. 0.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Khối lượng
$587Thị trường mở
Jun 3, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent high Selic rates near 14.5% after initial easing continue to restrain Brazil's Q2 2026 growth trajectory following the 1.1% QoQ expansion in Q1. Tight monetary policy, moderating household consumption, and normalizing agricultural output amid a robust but cooling labor market underpin the closely matched trader consensus across mid-range outcomes from 0.3%–1.4%. Recent central bank communications highlight caution over unanchored inflation around 4.4%, while full-year 2026 forecasts cluster near 1.6%–2.3% from institutions like the IMF and World Bank. The June 17 Copom decision and upcoming inflation releases represent key near-term catalysts that could shift probabilities among these competitive bands.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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