China’s government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March National People’s Congress, a range that aligns closely with the dominant Polymarket outcome. Official data through mid-2026 showed 5.0% growth in Q1 moderating to 4.3% in Q2 for a first-half reading of 4.7%, keeping the full-year figure on track within the target band. External forecasts from the OECD, BBVA Research, IMF, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting resilient manufacturing and export performance—particularly in high-tech sectors—offset by persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property market. Traders have assigned minimal probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%, consistent with this observed trajectory and the absence of major new stimulus measures that could meaningfully alter the pace.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtChina Annual GDP Growth 2026
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.1%
$876,819 KL.
$876,819 KL.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
<1%
1.0–2.0%
<1%
2.0–3.0%
<1%
3.0–4.0%
1%
4.0–5.0%
89%
5.0–6.0%
11%
6.0-7.0%
<1%
7.0–8.0%
<1%
8.0–9.0%
1%
9.0%+
<1%
4.0–5.0% 89%
5.0–6.0% 10.7%
3.0–4.0% 1.1%
8.0–9.0% 1.1%
$876,819 KL.
$876,819 KL.
Jan 31, 2026
<1.0%
$64,833 KL.
<1%
1.0–2.0%
$74,124 KL.
<1%
2.0–3.0%
$44,776 KL.
<1%
3.0–4.0%
$80,220 KL.
1%
4.0–5.0%
$219,722 KL.
89%
5.0–6.0%
$78,494 KL.
11%
6.0-7.0%
$83,563 KL.
<1%
7.0–8.0%
$62,549 KL.
<1%
8.0–9.0%
$53,031 KL.
1%
9.0%+
$115,508 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March National People’s Congress, a range that aligns closely with the dominant Polymarket outcome. Official data through mid-2026 showed 5.0% growth in Q1 moderating to 4.3% in Q2 for a first-half reading of 4.7%, keeping the full-year figure on track within the target band. External forecasts from the OECD, BBVA Research, IMF, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting resilient manufacturing and export performance—particularly in high-tech sectors—offset by persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property market. Traders have assigned minimal probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%, consistent with this observed trajectory and the absence of major new stimulus measures that could meaningfully alter the pace.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$876,819Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.China’s government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March National People’s Congress, a range that aligns closely with the dominant Polymarket outcome. Official data through mid-2026 showed 5.0% growth in Q1 moderating to 4.3% in Q2 for a first-half reading of 4.7%, keeping the full-year figure on track within the target band. External forecasts from the OECD, BBVA Research, IMF, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting resilient manufacturing and export performance—particularly in high-tech sectors—offset by persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property market. Traders have assigned minimal probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%, consistent with this observed trajectory and the absence of major new stimulus measures that could meaningfully alter the pace.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$876,819Ngày kết thúc
Jan 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 21, 2026, 6:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...China’s government set a 4.5–5.0% GDP growth target for 2026 during the March National People’s Congress, a range that aligns closely with the dominant Polymarket outcome. Official data through mid-2026 showed 5.0% growth in Q1 moderating to 4.3% in Q2 for a first-half reading of 4.7%, keeping the full-year figure on track within the target band. External forecasts from the OECD, BBVA Research, IMF, and Goldman Sachs cluster between 4.4% and 4.8%, reflecting resilient manufacturing and export performance—particularly in high-tech sectors—offset by persistent weakness in domestic consumption and the property market. Traders have assigned minimal probability to outcomes above 5% or below 4%, consistent with this observed trajectory and the absence of major new stimulus measures that could meaningfully alter the pace.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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