Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q2. The closely matched market-implied odds—25% for 2.0–2.5% and 21.5% for 2.5–3.0%—reflect uncertainty over whether resilient business investment in AI-related capital goods and steady April payrolls of 115,000 will offset softer consumer spending and limited Federal Reserve easing as inflation remains above target. Higher tariffs and a cooling labor market at 4.3% unemployment add downside risks, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7% supports modest upside potential. Upcoming May retail sales, ISM surveys, and the Q1 second estimate on May 28 will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the July 30 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtUS GDP growth in Q2 2026?
US GDP growth in Q2 2026?
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 22%
1.5–2.0% 20%
3.0–3.5% 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
8%
1.0–1.5%
9%
1.5–2.0%
20%
2.0–2.5%
26%
2.5–3.0%
22%
3.0–3.5%
16%
≥3.5%
7%
2.0–2.5% 26%
2.5–3.0% 22%
1.5–2.0% 20%
3.0–3.5% 16%
MỚI
MỚI
Jul 30, 2026
<1.0%
$593 KL.
8%
1.0–1.5%
$353 KL.
9%
1.5–2.0%
$293 KL.
20%
2.0–2.5%
$526 KL.
26%
2.5–3.0%
$410 KL.
22%
3.0–3.5%
$661 KL.
16%
≥3.5%
$509 KL.
7%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q2. The closely matched market-implied odds—25% for 2.0–2.5% and 21.5% for 2.5–3.0%—reflect uncertainty over whether resilient business investment in AI-related capital goods and steady April payrolls of 115,000 will offset softer consumer spending and limited Federal Reserve easing as inflation remains above target. Higher tariffs and a cooling labor market at 4.3% unemployment add downside risks, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7% supports modest upside potential. Upcoming May retail sales, ISM surveys, and the Q1 second estimate on May 28 will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the July 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,345Ngày kết thúc
Jul 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q2. The closely matched market-implied odds—25% for 2.0–2.5% and 21.5% for 2.5–3.0%—reflect uncertainty over whether resilient business investment in AI-related capital goods and steady April payrolls of 115,000 will offset softer consumer spending and limited Federal Reserve easing as inflation remains above target. Higher tariffs and a cooling labor market at 4.3% unemployment add downside risks, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7% supports modest upside potential. Upcoming May retail sales, ISM surveys, and the Q1 second estimate on May 28 will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the July 30 resolution.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for July 30, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.
Khối lượng
$3,345Ngày kết thúc
Jul 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 2:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q1 2026 GDP growth at a 2.0% annualized rate, combined with April CPI accelerating to 3.8% year-over-year amid energy price spikes from the Iran conflict, has anchored trader sentiment around moderate expansion for Q2. The closely matched market-implied odds—25% for 2.0–2.5% and 21.5% for 2.5–3.0%—reflect uncertainty over whether resilient business investment in AI-related capital goods and steady April payrolls of 115,000 will offset softer consumer spending and limited Federal Reserve easing as inflation remains above target. Higher tariffs and a cooling labor market at 4.3% unemployment add downside risks, while the Atlanta Fed GDPNow nowcast near 3.7% supports modest upside potential. Upcoming May retail sales, ISM surveys, and the Q1 second estimate on May 28 will likely sharpen the distribution ahead of the July 30 resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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