Elevated inflation pressures, with Colombia’s central bank technical staff projecting headline inflation rising to 6.4 percent by December 2026 against the 3 percent target, are driving the near-even split in trader sentiment for the Banco de la República’s June monetary policy decision. Persistent core readings above 5.5 percent and robust domestic demand have sustained calls for an additional 25-to-50 basis point hike to the current 11.25 percent benchmark, yet the unanimous April hold has introduced caution, as policymakers balance these forces against moderating growth and fiscal stimulus effects. Recent data revisions and the upcoming May inflation release will serve as key swing factors, leaving market-implied odds closely matched between tightening and a continued pause ahead of the June 30 meeting.