Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to a 25 basis points increase in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—pushing well above the 2% target despite stagnant Q1 GDP growth of 0.1%. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, with policymakers signaling the hike as the first in a series, aligning with 85% of economists in a Reuters poll expecting a move to 2.25%. Minimal odds for no change (17.7%) or larger adjustments stem from balanced risks of stagflation, with May inflation data as the key near-term catalyst ahead of the June decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật25 bps Increase 83%
No change 17.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,418 KL.
$244,418 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
18%
25 bps Increase
83%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 83%
No change 17.8%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$244,418 KL.
$244,418 KL.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$47,296 KL.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$41,126 KL.
<1%
No change
$49,524 KL.
18%
25 bps Increase
$59,422 KL.
83%
50+ bps increase
$47,050 KL.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to a 25 basis points increase in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—pushing well above the 2% target despite stagnant Q1 GDP growth of 0.1%. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, with policymakers signaling the hike as the first in a series, aligning with 85% of economists in a Reuters poll expecting a move to 2.25%. Minimal odds for no change (17.7%) or larger adjustments stem from balanced risks of stagflation, with May inflation data as the key near-term catalyst ahead of the June decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Thị trường mở: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Khối lượng
$244,418Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to a 25 basis points increase in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—pushing well above the 2% target despite stagnant Q1 GDP growth of 0.1%. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, with policymakers signaling the hike as the first in a series, aligning with 85% of economists in a Reuters poll expecting a move to 2.25%. Minimal odds for no change (17.7%) or larger adjustments stem from balanced risks of stagflation, with May inflation data as the key near-term catalyst ahead of the June decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Khối lượng
$244,418Ngày kết thúc
Jun 11, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 82.5% implied probability to a 25 basis points increase in the ECB deposit facility rate at the June 2026 meeting, reflecting surging Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April—up from 2.6% in March and driven by energy price spikes amid the Iran conflict—pushing well above the 2% target despite stagnant Q1 GDP growth of 0.1%. The ECB held rates steady at 2.00% on April 30, with policymakers signaling the hike as the first in a series, aligning with 85% of economists in a Reuters poll expecting a move to 2.25%. Minimal odds for no change (17.7%) or larger adjustments stem from balanced risks of stagflation, with May inflation data as the key near-term catalyst ahead of the June decision.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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