The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors current market-implied odds for May. This outcome, above consensus forecasts, reinforced trader views of a resilient yet cooling labor market in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, with household survey data indicating modest labor-force contraction offsetting job gains. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent because recent wage growth has moderated to 3.5 percent year-over-year and job openings per unemployed worker have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, signaling gradual normalization rather than sharp deterioration. The closely contested spread between these two outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether May payrolls will match April’s pace or slow further ahead of the June 6 release, with 4.2 percent and 4.5 percent options capturing the narrower band of potential variance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMay Unemployment Rate
May Unemployment Rate
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 12.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
3%
4.0%
9%
4.1%
13%
4.2%
19%
4.3%
38%
4.4%
32%
4.5%
11%
4.6%
4%
≥4.7%
4%
4.3% 38%
4.4% 28%
4.2% 16%
4.1% 12.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Jun 5, 2026
≤3.9%
$45 KL.
3%
4.0%
$73 KL.
9%
4.1%
$45 KL.
13%
4.2%
$38 KL.
19%
4.3%
$107 KL.
38%
4.4%
$54 KL.
32%
4.5%
$50 KL.
11%
4.6%
$44 KL.
4%
≥4.7%
$51 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors current market-implied odds for May. This outcome, above consensus forecasts, reinforced trader views of a resilient yet cooling labor market in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, with household survey data indicating modest labor-force contraction offsetting job gains. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent because recent wage growth has moderated to 3.5 percent year-over-year and job openings per unemployed worker have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, signaling gradual normalization rather than sharp deterioration. The closely contested spread between these two outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether May payrolls will match April’s pace or slow further ahead of the June 6 release, with 4.2 percent and 4.5 percent options capturing the narrower band of potential variance.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Thị trường mở: May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ET
Khối lượng
$508Ngày kết thúc
Jun 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors current market-implied odds for May. This outcome, above consensus forecasts, reinforced trader views of a resilient yet cooling labor market in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, with household survey data indicating modest labor-force contraction offsetting job gains. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent because recent wage growth has moderated to 3.5 percent year-over-year and job openings per unemployed worker have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, signaling gradual normalization rather than sharp deterioration. The closely contested spread between these two outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether May payrolls will match April’s pace or slow further ahead of the June 6 release, with 4.2 percent and 4.5 percent options capturing the narrower band of potential variance.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for May 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for June 5, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Khối lượng
$508Ngày kết thúc
Jun 5, 2026Thị trường mở
May 8, 2026, 12:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The April 2026 employment report, showing nonfarm payrolls rising 115,000 and the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent, anchors current market-implied odds for May. This outcome, above consensus forecasts, reinforced trader views of a resilient yet cooling labor market in a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, with household survey data indicating modest labor-force contraction offsetting job gains. Market-implied probabilities cluster around 4.3 percent and 4.4 percent because recent wage growth has moderated to 3.5 percent year-over-year and job openings per unemployed worker have fallen below pre-pandemic levels, signaling gradual normalization rather than sharp deterioration. The closely contested spread between these two outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether May payrolls will match April’s pace or slow further ahead of the June 6 release, with 4.2 percent and 4.5 percent options capturing the narrower band of potential variance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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