Anthropic’s recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets, with shares trading near a $1 trillion valuation on platforms like Forge Global while OpenAI hovers around $850 billion after its March $122 billion round, has anchored trader consensus at a 91.5% implied probability for the “Yes” outcome. Enterprise adoption of Claude models has lifted Anthropic’s annualized revenue run-rate to $39–45 billion, exceeding OpenAI’s $25 billion trajectory and supporting premium valuation multiples. Landmark compute commitments from Amazon and Google further bolster balance-sheet strength ahead of a potential $50 billion raise targeting $900 billion-plus this summer. While these momentum drivers favor Anthropic flipping the ranking by year-end 2026, a larger-than-expected OpenAI funding round or accelerated revenue acceleration could still narrow the gap and introduce downside risk to the current market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$77,809 KL.
$77,809 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$77,809 KL.
$77,809 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Anthropic’s recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets, with shares trading near a $1 trillion valuation on platforms like Forge Global while OpenAI hovers around $850 billion after its March $122 billion round, has anchored trader consensus at a 91.5% implied probability for the “Yes” outcome. Enterprise adoption of Claude models has lifted Anthropic’s annualized revenue run-rate to $39–45 billion, exceeding OpenAI’s $25 billion trajectory and supporting premium valuation multiples. Landmark compute commitments from Amazon and Google further bolster balance-sheet strength ahead of a potential $50 billion raise targeting $900 billion-plus this summer. While these momentum drivers favor Anthropic flipping the ranking by year-end 2026, a larger-than-expected OpenAI funding round or accelerated revenue acceleration could still narrow the gap and introduce downside risk to the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
Khối lượng
$77,809Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Anthropic’s recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets, with shares trading near a $1 trillion valuation on platforms like Forge Global while OpenAI hovers around $850 billion after its March $122 billion round, has anchored trader consensus at a 91.5% implied probability for the “Yes” outcome. Enterprise adoption of Claude models has lifted Anthropic’s annualized revenue run-rate to $39–45 billion, exceeding OpenAI’s $25 billion trajectory and supporting premium valuation multiples. Landmark compute commitments from Amazon and Google further bolster balance-sheet strength ahead of a potential $50 billion raise targeting $900 billion-plus this summer. While these momentum drivers favor Anthropic flipping the ranking by year-end 2026, a larger-than-expected OpenAI funding round or accelerated revenue acceleration could still narrow the gap and introduce downside risk to the current market-implied odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, at any point, Anthropic's most recent public or private valuation is greater than OpenAI's most recent public or private valuation, by December 31, 2026 (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Private valuation refers to the valuation of a company as established in a completed funding round. Qualifying private valuations must be explicitly confirmed by the company whose value is observed, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
Public valuation refers to the company’s market capitalization (number of shares outstanding multiplied by the current share price).
The primary resolution source will be official communications from Anthropic and OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$78,023Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s recent surge past OpenAI on secondary markets, with shares trading near a $1 trillion valuation on platforms like Forge Global while OpenAI hovers around $850 billion after its March $122 billion round, has anchored trader consensus at a 91.5% implied probability for the “Yes” outcome. Enterprise adoption of Claude models has lifted Anthropic’s annualized revenue run-rate to $39–45 billion, exceeding OpenAI’s $25 billion trajectory and supporting premium valuation multiples. Landmark compute commitments from Amazon and Google further bolster balance-sheet strength ahead of a potential $50 billion raise targeting $900 billion-plus this summer. While these momentum drivers favor Anthropic flipping the ranking by year-end 2026, a larger-than-expected OpenAI funding round or accelerated revenue acceleration could still narrow the gap and introduce downside risk to the current market-implied odds.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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