Anthropic holds a commanding 69.5% implied probability in this market due to the sustained benchmark leadership of its Claude family, particularly after the mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7 and the strong early performance of the Mythos Preview in reasoning and coding tasks. These models have topped multiple independent leaderboards for software engineering accuracy and safety alignment, outpacing rivals through targeted improvements in long-context handling and agentic capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 22% on the strength of its multimodal and reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s May GPT-5.5 launch has yet to shift the consensus. Traders are watching for any Claude 5 preview or major Gemini update before the June 30 resolution, as even modest capability gains could quickly recalibrate the tight competitive landscape.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 69.5%
Google 23%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.4%
$5,898,743 KL.
$5,898,743 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
70%
23%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
1%
Meta
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 69.5%
Google 23%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 1.4%
$5,898,743 KL.
$5,898,743 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$833,880 KL.
70%
$525,863 KL.
23%
OpenAI
$335,682 KL.
6%
xAI
$1,060,880 KL.
1%
Meta
$131,241 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$499,222 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$158,332 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$297,966 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$477,581 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$151,502 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$155,004 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$375,677 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$359,408 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$377,281 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$160,194 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 69.5% implied probability in this market due to the sustained benchmark leadership of its Claude family, particularly after the mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7 and the strong early performance of the Mythos Preview in reasoning and coding tasks. These models have topped multiple independent leaderboards for software engineering accuracy and safety alignment, outpacing rivals through targeted improvements in long-context handling and agentic capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 22% on the strength of its multimodal and reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s May GPT-5.5 launch has yet to shift the consensus. Traders are watching for any Claude 5 preview or major Gemini update before the June 30 resolution, as even modest capability gains could quickly recalibrate the tight competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,898,743Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 69.5% implied probability in this market due to the sustained benchmark leadership of its Claude family, particularly after the mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7 and the strong early performance of the Mythos Preview in reasoning and coding tasks. These models have topped multiple independent leaderboards for software engineering accuracy and safety alignment, outpacing rivals through targeted improvements in long-context handling and agentic capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 22% on the strength of its multimodal and reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s May GPT-5.5 launch has yet to shift the consensus. Traders are watching for any Claude 5 preview or major Gemini update before the June 30 resolution, as even modest capability gains could quickly recalibrate the tight competitive landscape.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model which has the highest arena rank based off the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$5,898,743Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds a commanding 69.5% implied probability in this market due to the sustained benchmark leadership of its Claude family, particularly after the mid-April release of Claude Opus 4.7 and the strong early performance of the Mythos Preview in reasoning and coding tasks. These models have topped multiple independent leaderboards for software engineering accuracy and safety alignment, outpacing rivals through targeted improvements in long-context handling and agentic capabilities. Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro follows at 22% on the strength of its multimodal and reasoning edges, while OpenAI’s May GPT-5.5 launch has yet to shift the consensus. Traders are watching for any Claude 5 preview or major Gemini update before the June 30 resolution, as even modest capability gains could quickly recalibrate the tight competitive landscape.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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