Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 91%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.3%
Alibaba <1%
$593,854 KL.
$593,854 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
91%
10%
OpenAI
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Anthropic 91%
Google 10%
OpenAI 1.3%
Alibaba <1%
$593,854 KL.
$593,854 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$56,843 KL.
91%
$61,067 KL.
10%
OpenAI
$36,196 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$58,438 KL.
<1%
Meta
$40,184 KL.
<1%
xAI
$50,157 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$25,554 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$34,097 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$38,952 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$39,087 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$35,580 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$25,718 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$29,179 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$29,953 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$32,847 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$593,854Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank (Style Control On) based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$593,854Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:18 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic maintains overwhelming trader consensus at over 90 percent implied probability for fielding the top large language model by month-end, driven by the February releases of Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, which posted leading scores on SWE-bench Verified for coding, GPQA Diamond for reasoning, and ARC-AGI-2 for general intelligence while introducing 1-million-token context and native agent teams. These capabilities have widened the gap versus OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 family and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro on enterprise-relevant benchmarks, with no comparable frontier updates reported since April. A credible surprise release or benchmark reversal from Google or OpenAI before May 31 remains the only realistic scenario that could narrow the lead, though current development timelines make such shifts unlikely.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp