Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 67.5% implied probability for the best math AI model by May's end, driven by Claude Mythos Preview's dominance on key benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and composite math leaderboards as of early May 2026, where it scores 61.7% overall via advanced chain-of-thought reasoning that boosts hard-problem accuracy by 10-30%. Released in preview on April 7, this frontier large language model outpaces rivals without general availability, fueling bets on further refinement before resolution. OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including GPT-5.2 Pro topping some evals at 99%, holds 19% amid strong competition math showings but trails in reasoning-heavy tests. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro garners 11.5% for its scientific integrations, yet lacks pure math edge. With no major updates in the last 48 hours, late-May announcements could shift dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 68%
OpenAI 19%
Google 11%
ByteDance <1%
$104,668 KL.
$104,668 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
68%
OpenAI
19%
11%
ByteDance
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Meta
1%
xAI
1%
Baidu
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 68%
OpenAI 19%
Google 11%
ByteDance <1%
$104,668 KL.
$104,668 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$14,513 KL.
68%
OpenAI
$17,397 KL.
19%
$9,723 KL.
11%
ByteDance
$6,348 KL.
1%
DeepSeek
$6,019 KL.
1%
Meta
$5,975 KL.
1%
xAI
$7,897 KL.
1%
Baidu
$6,413 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$7,497 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$6,163 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$6,653 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$2,116 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$4,546 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$1,909 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,512 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 67.5% implied probability for the best math AI model by May's end, driven by Claude Mythos Preview's dominance on key benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and composite math leaderboards as of early May 2026, where it scores 61.7% overall via advanced chain-of-thought reasoning that boosts hard-problem accuracy by 10-30%. Released in preview on April 7, this frontier large language model outpaces rivals without general availability, fueling bets on further refinement before resolution. OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including GPT-5.2 Pro topping some evals at 99%, holds 19% amid strong competition math showings but trails in reasoning-heavy tests. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro garners 11.5% for its scientific integrations, yet lacks pure math edge. With no major updates in the last 48 hours, late-May announcements could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$104,668Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 67.5% implied probability for the best math AI model by May's end, driven by Claude Mythos Preview's dominance on key benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and composite math leaderboards as of early May 2026, where it scores 61.7% overall via advanced chain-of-thought reasoning that boosts hard-problem accuracy by 10-30%. Released in preview on April 7, this frontier large language model outpaces rivals without general availability, fueling bets on further refinement before resolution. OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including GPT-5.2 Pro topping some evals at 99%, holds 19% amid strong competition math showings but trails in reasoning-heavy tests. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro garners 11.5% for its scientific integrations, yet lacks pure math edge. With no major updates in the last 48 hours, late-May announcements could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab for "Math" is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$104,668Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns Anthropic a leading 67.5% implied probability for the best math AI model by May's end, driven by Claude Mythos Preview's dominance on key benchmarks like AIME, MATH-500, and composite math leaderboards as of early May 2026, where it scores 61.7% overall via advanced chain-of-thought reasoning that boosts hard-problem accuracy by 10-30%. Released in preview on April 7, this frontier large language model outpaces rivals without general availability, fueling bets on further refinement before resolution. OpenAI's GPT-5 series, including GPT-5.2 Pro topping some evals at 99%, holds 19% amid strong competition math showings but trails in reasoning-heavy tests. Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro garners 11.5% for its scientific integrations, yet lacks pure math edge. With no major updates in the last 48 hours, late-May announcements could shift dynamics.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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