Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 60% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid unconfirmed rumors and the company's pivot to core AI infrastructure. Reports from January 2026 highlighted internal prototypes for a bot-free social platform potentially using Worldcoin biometrics for human verification, but OpenAI has issued no official announcements, demos, or beta invites five months later. Recent developments prioritize enterprise tools like the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched in early May and Codex mobile preview on May 14, alongside hardware device plans for late 2026, signaling focus on model capabilities, agentic workflows, and developer ecosystem over social media expansion. Key catalysts include upcoming earnings or developer conferences that could reveal roadmap shifts before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$51,770 KL.
$51,770 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$51,770 KL.
$51,770 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 60% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid unconfirmed rumors and the company's pivot to core AI infrastructure. Reports from January 2026 highlighted internal prototypes for a bot-free social platform potentially using Worldcoin biometrics for human verification, but OpenAI has issued no official announcements, demos, or beta invites five months later. Recent developments prioritize enterprise tools like the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched in early May and Codex mobile preview on May 14, alongside hardware device plans for late 2026, signaling focus on model capabilities, agentic workflows, and developer ecosystem over social media expansion. Key catalysts include upcoming earnings or developer conferences that could reveal roadmap shifts before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ET
Khối lượng
$51,770Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 60% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid unconfirmed rumors and the company's pivot to core AI infrastructure. Reports from January 2026 highlighted internal prototypes for a bot-free social platform potentially using Worldcoin biometrics for human verification, but OpenAI has issued no official announcements, demos, or beta invites five months later. Recent developments prioritize enterprise tools like the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched in early May and Codex mobile preview on May 14, alongside hardware device plans for late 2026, signaling focus on model capabilities, agentic workflows, and developer ecosystem over social media expansion. Key catalysts include upcoming earnings or developer conferences that could reveal roadmap shifts before year-end resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI launches a social network by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A social network refers to a platform or service developed by OpenAI that is primarily intended for users to create profiles or identities and publicly share, view, or interact with content or other users in a feed, network, or similar format.
Tools or features whose primary purpose is not to function as a social network, even if they allow limited user interaction, such as comments, reactions, or sharing, will not qualify unless they are clearly released and presented by OpenAI as a social network, social platform, or similar.
A qualifying social network must be publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
Social networks may qualify regardless of whether they are launched as a standalone platform or as social-network functionality integrated into another OpenAI product, provided that OpenAI clearly presents the product or feature as a social network or social platform, or similar.
Messaging or messenger-style applications solely designed for private one-to-one or small-group communication will not qualify for this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Khối lượng
$51,770Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 29, 2026, 3:36 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices "No" at a 60% implied probability for OpenAI releasing a social network in 2026, reflecting skepticism amid unconfirmed rumors and the company's pivot to core AI infrastructure. Reports from January 2026 highlighted internal prototypes for a bot-free social platform potentially using Worldcoin biometrics for human verification, but OpenAI has issued no official announcements, demos, or beta invites five months later. Recent developments prioritize enterprise tools like the Daybreak cybersecurity agent launched in early May and Codex mobile preview on May 14, alongside hardware device plans for late 2026, signaling focus on model capabilities, agentic workflows, and developer ecosystem over social media expansion. Key catalysts include upcoming earnings or developer conferences that could reveal roadmap shifts before year-end resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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