OpenAI’s sustained emphasis on scaling frontier large language models, enterprise agents, and ChatGPT infrastructure—with weekly active users now exceeding one billion—has anchored trader consensus around a 90.5% probability that no social network launches in 2026. Early prototypes exploring AI-generated feeds and biometric verification via iris scanning or Face ID remained confined to a team of fewer than ten, while the short-lived Sora video app was discontinued in March amid weak engagement and rising costs. Product capacity continues to prioritize API reliability, developer ecosystems, and regulatory positioning over competing in saturated social platforms. A late-year pivot integrating social features into ChatGPT remains theoretically possible but would require an abrupt strategic shift absent any recent official signals.