Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability to claim the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) as of May 16 noon ET, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from recent community battles. This variant of Anthropic's February 2026 release, leveraging adaptive thinking for enhanced reasoning and task persistence, recently overtook Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 Elo and the base 4.6 at 1498, cementing Anthropic's dominance over rivals like GPT-5.5-high (1484 Elo). With just 48 hours to resolution, minimal shifts are expected barring a massive vote surge for challengers or surprise model drop; ongoing arena evaluations remain the key watchpoint.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtclaude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.0%
claude-opus-4-6 1.5%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
Other <1%
$26,405 KL.
$26,405 KL.
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
98%
claude-opus-4-6
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
1%
Other
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
<1%
gemini-3-pro
<1%
muse-spark
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
<1%
claude-opus-4-6-thinking 98.0%
claude-opus-4-6 1.5%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking <1%
Other <1%
$26,405 KL.
$26,405 KL.
May 16, 2026
claude-opus-4-6-thinking
$7,485 KL.
98%
claude-opus-4-6
$1,645 KL.
2%
claude-opus-4-7-thinking
$3,916 KL.
1%
Other
$2,051 KL.
<1%
gpt-5.5-high
$2,600 KL.
<1%
claude-opus-4-7
$4,863 KL.
<1%
gemini-3-pro
$1,475 KL.
<1%
muse-spark
$1,218 KL.
<1%
gemini-3.1-pro-preview
$1,152 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability to claim the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) as of May 16 noon ET, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from recent community battles. This variant of Anthropic's February 2026 release, leveraging adaptive thinking for enhanced reasoning and task persistence, recently overtook Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 Elo and the base 4.6 at 1498, cementing Anthropic's dominance over rivals like GPT-5.5-high (1484 Elo). With just 48 hours to resolution, minimal shifts are expected barring a massive vote surge for challengers or surprise model drop; ongoing arena evaluations remain the key watchpoint.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,405Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability to claim the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) as of May 16 noon ET, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from recent community battles. This variant of Anthropic's February 2026 release, leveraging adaptive thinking for enhanced reasoning and task persistence, recently overtook Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 Elo and the base 4.6 at 1498, cementing Anthropic's dominance over rivals like GPT-5.5-high (1484 Elo). With just 48 hours to resolution, minimal shifts are expected barring a massive vote surge for challengers or surprise model drop; ongoing arena evaluations remain the key watchpoint.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-thinking”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-4-6” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-4-6-thinking”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$26,405Ngày kết thúc
May 16, 2026Thị trường mở
May 8, 2026, 12:47 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Claude Opus 4.6 (thinking) at 98% implied probability to claim the top spot on the Chatbot Arena Text leaderboard (style control off) as of May 16 noon ET, driven by its commanding 1502 Elo rating from recent community battles. This variant of Anthropic's February 2026 release, leveraging adaptive thinking for enhanced reasoning and task persistence, recently overtook Claude Opus 4.7 (thinking) at 1501 Elo and the base 4.6 at 1498, cementing Anthropic's dominance over rivals like GPT-5.5-high (1484 Elo). With just 48 hours to resolution, minimal shifts are expected barring a massive vote surge for challengers or surprise model drop; ongoing arena evaluations remain the key watchpoint.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp