Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 93%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,741,099 KL.
$8,741,099 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
93%
8%
OpenAI
1%
ByteDance
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Meta
<1%
xAI
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Amazon
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 93%
Google 8%
OpenAI <1%
ByteDance <1%
$8,741,099 KL.
$8,741,099 KL.
May 31, 2026
Anthropic
$636,505 KL.
93%
$577,444 KL.
8%
OpenAI
$727,589 KL.
1%
ByteDance
$543,038 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$513,635 KL.
<1%
Meta
$515,180 KL.
<1%
xAI
$658,215 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$518,378 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$557,139 KL.
<1%
DeepSeek
$475,917 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$470,637 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$403,756 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$1,421,640 KL.
<1%
Meituan
$311,909 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$412,851 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$8,741,099Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on May 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$8,741,099Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 14, 2026, 5:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds a commanding 92.5% market-implied probability for fielding the best AI model by end of May, driven primarily by its recent Claude 4 release that set new records on key benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal tasks while maintaining strong safety alignments. Traders see this as extending the company’s consistent edge over competitors in large language model performance and developer adoption. Google’s 7.5% share reflects ongoing Gemini updates but lacks the same benchmark dominance or recent capability leaps. OpenAI’s slim 0.8% chance acknowledges GPT-5 progress yet highlights delays in matching Anthropic’s current trajectory. A last-minute breakthrough from Google DeepMind or OpenAI before month-end could shift sentiment, though the market views such reversals as unlikely given the short timeline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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