Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, propelled by recent leaks revealing the Gemini 3.2 Flash model in iOS app betas and a brief accidental rollout in the Gemini app around May 5, signaling near-term readiness. These developments coincide perfectly with Google I/O 2026's keynote on May 19 at 10 AM Pacific, Google's longstanding platform for premiering frontier AI models amid intensifying competition from OpenAI and Anthropic. Yesterday's official I/O teaser post further amplified hype. While historical patterns support this positioning, realistic challenges include last-minute safety evaluations delaying availability, an announcement-only reveal without full rollout, or a pivot to rumored Gemini 3.5 Omni, potentially shifting resolution to later dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtMay 19 92%
May 20 3.5%
May 22 1.6%
May 18 1.3%
$175,811 KL.
$175,811 KL.
May 31, 2026
May 12
<1%
May 13
<1%
May 14
1%
May 15
<1%
May 16
<1%
May 17
1%
May 18
1%
May 19
92%
May 20
4%
May 21
1%
May 22
2%
May 23
<1%
May 24
<1%
May 25
1%
May 26
1%
May 27
1%
May 28
<1%
May 29
<1%
May 30
<1%
May 31
<1%
No release by May 31
1%
May 19 92%
May 20 3.5%
May 22 1.6%
May 18 1.3%
$175,811 KL.
$175,811 KL.
May 31, 2026
May 12
$7,718 KL.
<1%
May 13
$3,363 KL.
<1%
May 14
$3,765 KL.
1%
May 15
$6,881 KL.
<1%
May 16
$5,577 KL.
<1%
May 17
$6,343 KL.
1%
May 18
$16,029 KL.
1%
May 19
$45,377 KL.
92%
May 20
$11,690 KL.
4%
May 21
$7,129 KL.
1%
May 22
$9,133 KL.
2%
May 23
$3,069 KL.
<1%
May 24
$3,950 KL.
<1%
May 25
$2,127 KL.
1%
May 26
$2,787 KL.
1%
May 27
$2,325 KL.
1%
May 28
$2,001 KL.
<1%
May 29
$1,595 KL.
<1%
May 30
$3,689 KL.
<1%
May 31
$3,568 KL.
<1%
No release by May 31
$8,943 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, propelled by recent leaks revealing the Gemini 3.2 Flash model in iOS app betas and a brief accidental rollout in the Gemini app around May 5, signaling near-term readiness. These developments coincide perfectly with Google I/O 2026's keynote on May 19 at 10 AM Pacific, Google's longstanding platform for premiering frontier AI models amid intensifying competition from OpenAI and Anthropic. Yesterday's official I/O teaser post further amplified hype. While historical patterns support this positioning, realistic challenges include last-minute safety evaluations delaying availability, an announcement-only reveal without full rollout, or a pivot to rumored Gemini 3.5 Omni, potentially shifting resolution to later dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ET
Khối lượng
$175,811Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, propelled by recent leaks revealing the Gemini 3.2 Flash model in iOS app betas and a brief accidental rollout in the Gemini app around May 5, signaling near-term readiness. These developments coincide perfectly with Google I/O 2026's keynote on May 19 at 10 AM Pacific, Google's longstanding platform for premiering frontier AI models amid intensifying competition from OpenAI and Anthropic. Yesterday's official I/O teaser post further amplified hype. While historical patterns support this positioning, realistic challenges include last-minute safety evaluations delaying availability, an announcement-only reveal without full rollout, or a pivot to rumored Gemini 3.5 Omni, potentially shifting resolution to later dates.
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Google's Gemini 3.2 model is made available to the general public.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Gemini 3.2 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 3.2, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Gemini 3.1, similar to the progression from Gemini 3 to Gemini 3.1. (e.g., Gemini 3.2 GA, Gemini 3.2/3.3/3.4, etc., in any variant, like Pro/Deep Think/Flash/Flash-lite, would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Specialized models for non-text modalities such as video generation (e.g., Veo), image generation (e.g., Imagen, Nano Banana), music generation (e.g., Lyria), or robotics (e.g., Gemini Robotics) will NOT qualify, even if released under the Gemini 3.2 version number. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., Gemini 3.1 GA) or a new flagship generation (e.g., Gemini 4) or similar that are not explicitly labeled as described above will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$175,811Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
May 5, 2026, 7:43 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus assigns a 91.5% implied probability to a Gemini 3.2 release on May 19, propelled by recent leaks revealing the Gemini 3.2 Flash model in iOS app betas and a brief accidental rollout in the Gemini app around May 5, signaling near-term readiness. These developments coincide perfectly with Google I/O 2026's keynote on May 19 at 10 AM Pacific, Google's longstanding platform for premiering frontier AI models amid intensifying competition from OpenAI and Anthropic. Yesterday's official I/O teaser post further amplified hype. While historical patterns support this positioning, realistic challenges include last-minute safety evaluations delaying availability, an announcement-only reveal without full rollout, or a pivot to rumored Gemini 3.5 Omni, potentially shifting resolution to later dates.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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