The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, where closing arguments wrapped up on May 14, has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman. Key factors include the statute of limitations hurdle for pre-2021 claims, limited evidence tying Musk's early donations directly to unjust enrichment during the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, and the jury's narrow focus on breach of charitable trust rather than broad damages. While Musk seeks up to $150 billion in disgorgement and leadership changes, historical precedents for similar tech disputes favor smaller or no payouts. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 91.5% "No" odds include a surprise jury verdict on Altman credibility or post-trial settlement pressure amid regulatory scrutiny of AI governance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$79,572 KL.
$79,572 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
$79,572 KL.
$79,572 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, where closing arguments wrapped up on May 14, has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman. Key factors include the statute of limitations hurdle for pre-2021 claims, limited evidence tying Musk's early donations directly to unjust enrichment during the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, and the jury's narrow focus on breach of charitable trust rather than broad damages. While Musk seeks up to $150 billion in disgorgement and leadership changes, historical precedents for similar tech disputes favor smaller or no payouts. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 91.5% "No" odds include a surprise jury verdict on Altman credibility or post-trial settlement pressure amid regulatory scrutiny of AI governance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ET
Khối lượng
$79,572Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, where closing arguments wrapped up on May 14, has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman. Key factors include the statute of limitations hurdle for pre-2021 claims, limited evidence tying Musk's early donations directly to unjust enrichment during the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, and the jury's narrow focus on breach of charitable trust rather than broad damages. While Musk seeks up to $150 billion in disgorgement and leadership changes, historical precedents for similar tech disputes favor smaller or no payouts. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 91.5% "No" odds include a surprise jury verdict on Altman credibility or post-trial settlement pressure amid regulatory scrutiny of AI governance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD in the initial trial of Musk v. Altman et al., Case No. 4:24-cv-04722-YGR (U.S. District Court, Northern District of California), by 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Qualifying amounts include monetary damages or payments awarded via jury verdict, court judgment, or settlement reached during or prior to the initial trial proceedings. Only cash or cash-equivalent compensation payable to Elon Musk (or entities controlled by him) will be counted. Non-monetary relief will not count.
If a mistrial is declared, or if the initial trial concludes without Elon Musk receiving at least $10,000,000,000 USD, this market will resolve to "No". Any retrial, appeal, or subsequent proceedings will not be considered for this market.
If Elon Musk is awarded or receives at least $10,000,000,000 USD during the initial trial proceedings, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$79,572Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 7:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The ongoing federal trial in Oakland, where closing arguments wrapped up on May 14, has reinforced trader conviction that Elon Musk is unlikely to secure a $10 billion-plus settlement from OpenAI and Sam Altman. Key factors include the statute of limitations hurdle for pre-2021 claims, limited evidence tying Musk's early donations directly to unjust enrichment during the nonprofit-to-for-profit shift, and the jury's narrow focus on breach of charitable trust rather than broad damages. While Musk seeks up to $150 billion in disgorgement and leadership changes, historical precedents for similar tech disputes favor smaller or no payouts. Realistic scenarios that could challenge the 91.5% "No" odds include a surprise jury verdict on Altman credibility or post-trial settlement pressure amid regulatory scrutiny of AI governance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp