Anthropic’s Claude 5 series—particularly Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5—currently leads most independent LLM leaderboards on intelligence, reasoning, and coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Humanity’s Last Exam, giving the company the clearest edge in trader sentiment for holding the #1 model by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in several evaluations and benefits from broad ecosystem integration, while Google’s Gemini 3.x variants and xAI’s Grok 4.x releases trail slightly but continue rapid iteration. Recent July 2026 launches compressed the gap among frontier labs, and further model drops expected through Q4 could shift relative positioning before December 31 resolution. Traders monitor benchmark updates, real-world capability demonstrations, and any major safety or scaling announcements as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$125,904 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI
34%
20%
Alibaba
13%
Meta
13%
xAI
13%
Z.ai
9%
ByteDance
8%
Moonshot
8%
DeepSeek
8%
Baidu
7%
Microsoft
6%
Meituan
5%
Amazon
4%
Mistral
3%
$125,904 KL.
OpenAI
$22,572 KL.
34%
$17,193 KL.
20%
Alibaba
$3,366 KL.
13%
Meta
$14,909 KL.
13%
xAI
$8,870 KL.
13%
Z.ai
$2,568 KL.
9%
ByteDance
$2,876 KL.
8%
Moonshot
$7,563 KL.
8%
DeepSeek
$20,584 KL.
8%
Baidu
$1,958 KL.
7%
Microsoft
$5,165 KL.
6%
Meituan
$2,980 KL.
5%
Amazon
$5,106 KL.
4%
Mistral
$10,194 KL.
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude 5 series—particularly Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5—currently leads most independent LLM leaderboards on intelligence, reasoning, and coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Humanity’s Last Exam, giving the company the clearest edge in trader sentiment for holding the #1 model by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in several evaluations and benefits from broad ecosystem integration, while Google’s Gemini 3.x variants and xAI’s Grok 4.x releases trail slightly but continue rapid iteration. Recent July 2026 launches compressed the gap among frontier labs, and further model drops expected through Q4 could shift relative positioning before December 31 resolution. Traders monitor benchmark updates, real-world capability demonstrations, and any major safety or scaling announcements as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$125,904Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic’s Claude 5 series—particularly Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5—currently leads most independent LLM leaderboards on intelligence, reasoning, and coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Humanity’s Last Exam, giving the company the clearest edge in trader sentiment for holding the #1 model by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in several evaluations and benefits from broad ecosystem integration, while Google’s Gemini 3.x variants and xAI’s Grok 4.x releases trail slightly but continue rapid iteration. Recent July 2026 launches compressed the gap among frontier labs, and further model drops expected through Q4 could shift relative positioning before December 31 resolution. Traders monitor benchmark updates, real-world capability demonstrations, and any major safety or scaling announcements as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$125,904Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude 5 series—particularly Opus 5, Fable 5, and Mythos 5—currently leads most independent LLM leaderboards on intelligence, reasoning, and coding benchmarks such as SWE-bench Verified and Humanity’s Last Exam, giving the company the clearest edge in trader sentiment for holding the #1 model by year-end. OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol remains competitive in several evaluations and benefits from broad ecosystem integration, while Google’s Gemini 3.x variants and xAI’s Grok 4.x releases trail slightly but continue rapid iteration. Recent July 2026 launches compressed the gap among frontier labs, and further model drops expected through Q4 could shift relative positioning before December 31 resolution. Traders monitor benchmark updates, real-world capability demonstrations, and any major safety or scaling announcements as key swing factors.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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