Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
Which companies will have a #1 AI model by December 31?
$14,247 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
77%
OpenAI
41%
xAI
21%
ByteDance
15%
Meta
14%
Z.ai
11%
DeepSeek
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Baidu
9%
Amazon
9%
Mistral
8%
Meituan
7%
$14,247 KL.
$1,874 KL.
77%
OpenAI
$3,368 KL.
41%
xAI
$3,158 KL.
21%
ByteDance
$1,157 KL.
15%
Meta
$881 KL.
14%
Z.ai
$82 KL.
11%
DeepSeek
$453 KL.
10%
Microsoft
$100 KL.
10%
Alibaba
$0 KL.
9%
Moonshot
$330 KL.
9%
Baidu
$126 KL.
9%
Amazon
$86 KL.
9%
Mistral
$1,448 KL.
8%
Meituan
$1,183 KL.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$14,247Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$14,247Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Rapid model releases and benchmark shifts among OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and xAI continue to drive trader focus on end-of-year leadership. OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 series, launched in late April with enhanced reasoning and agentic features, currently tops several composite indices, while Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.7 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview remain within a few Elo points on Arena leaderboards. Recent updates emphasize multi-step task performance and coding reliability, narrowing gaps that widened after earlier 2025 releases. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated summer or fall iterations, new agent benchmarks, and potential regulatory scrutiny on training data that could slow certain labs. This tight clustering leaves room for any single breakthrough or delay to reorder the hierarchy by December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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