Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$47,661 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
OpenAI
33%
31%
xAI
18%
Meta
14%
ByteDance
10%
DeepSeek
10%
Amazon
10%
Microsoft
10%
Alibaba
9%
Moonshot
9%
Z.ai
9%
Baidu
9%
Mistral
7%
Meituan
7%
$47,661 KL.
OpenAI
$10,288 KL.
33%
$13,363 KL.
31%
xAI
$5,588 KL.
18%
Meta
$3,686 KL.
14%
ByteDance
$2,202 KL.
10%
DeepSeek
$2,067 KL.
10%
Amazon
$1,313 KL.
10%
Microsoft
$2,264 KL.
10%
Alibaba
$500 KL.
9%
Moonshot
$576 KL.
9%
Z.ai
$956 KL.
9%
Baidu
$581 KL.
9%
Mistral
$2,625 KL.
7%
Meituan
$1,653 KL.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$47,661Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$47,661Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic currently leads trader sentiment due to its Claude Opus 4.8 and Claude Fable 5 models topping major June 2026 leaderboards like LMSYS Arena and LLM Stats with the highest overall scores in reasoning, coding, and general capabilities. These releases have widened the gap over OpenAI's GPT-5.5 series and Google's Gemini 3 variants, which remain competitive on specific benchmarks but trail in composite rankings. The market reflects tight frontier competition among a handful of labs, with performance converging and advantages often hinging on context windows, agentic tasks, or cost-efficiency rather than raw capability. Key upcoming catalysts include potential new model drops or updates from OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and xAI before year-end, alongside ongoing regulatory evaluations that could influence deployment timelines.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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