Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market because its Claude Opus 4.7 large language model, released in mid-April, continues to lead the LM Arena leaderboard under style control and related benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Traders see limited near-term challengers after OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro updates in April failed to close the gap on key metrics such as SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond. Google’s 22% reflects potential for a pre-June Gemini refresh or stronger benchmark gains, while OpenAI’s lower odds capture the absence of a decisive new release. With resolution at the end of June, any additional model drops or leaderboard shifts in the coming weeks could still alter the current trader consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,279 KL.
$1,455,279 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
67%
22%
OpenAI
6%
xAI
3%
DeepSeek
1%
Alibaba
1%
Microsoft
1%
Meta
1%
Z.ai
1%
Moonshot
1%
Meituan
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Anthropic 67%
Google 22%
OpenAI 6%
xAI 2.6%
$1,455,279 KL.
$1,455,279 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
Anthropic
$30,031 KL.
67%
$18,325 KL.
22%
OpenAI
$49,298 KL.
6%
xAI
$14,928 KL.
3%
DeepSeek
$201,099 KL.
1%
Alibaba
$136,475 KL.
1%
Microsoft
$11,847 KL.
1%
Meta
$8,119 KL.
1%
Z.ai
$412,860 KL.
1%
Moonshot
$203,328 KL.
1%
Meituan
$270,668 KL.
<1%
Mistral
$59,313 KL.
<1%
Amazon
$17,620 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$12,783 KL.
<1%
Baidu
$8,585 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market because its Claude Opus 4.7 large language model, released in mid-April, continues to lead the LM Arena leaderboard under style control and related benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Traders see limited near-term challengers after OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro updates in April failed to close the gap on key metrics such as SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond. Google’s 22% reflects potential for a pre-June Gemini refresh or stronger benchmark gains, while OpenAI’s lower odds capture the absence of a decisive new release. With resolution at the end of June, any additional model drops or leaderboard shifts in the coming weeks could still alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Thị trường mở: Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,455,279Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market because its Claude Opus 4.7 large language model, released in mid-April, continues to lead the LM Arena leaderboard under style control and related benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Traders see limited near-term challengers after OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro updates in April failed to close the gap on key metrics such as SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond. Google’s 22% reflects potential for a pre-June Gemini refresh or stronger benchmark gains, while OpenAI’s lower odds capture the absence of a decisive new release. With resolution at the end of June, any additional model drops or leaderboard shifts in the coming weeks could still alter the current trader consensus.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “xAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking system.
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Khối lượng
$1,455,279Ngày kết thúc
Jun 30, 2026Thị trường mở
Oct 10, 2025, 5:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Anthropic holds a commanding 67% implied probability in this market because its Claude Opus 4.7 large language model, released in mid-April, continues to lead the LM Arena leaderboard under style control and related benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and agentic tasks. Traders see limited near-term challengers after OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 and Google’s Gemini 3.1 Pro updates in April failed to close the gap on key metrics such as SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond. Google’s 22% reflects potential for a pre-June Gemini refresh or stronger benchmark gains, while OpenAI’s lower odds capture the absence of a decisive new release. With resolution at the end of June, any additional model drops or leaderboard shifts in the coming weeks could still alter the current trader consensus.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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