Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth released April 30—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% amid resilient consumer spending and business investment—coupled with Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showing 3.7% for Q2 as of May 14. Moderately cooling labor markets, with April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, temper enthusiasm and boost 18% odds for sub-0.5% growth amid low consumer sentiment. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5%, with FOMC March projections at 2.4%; watch May CPI and June FOMC for policy shifts impacting the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 43%
<0.5% 18.3%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 13%
$28,008 KL.
$28,008 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
18%
0.5–1.0%
12%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
17%
2.0–2.5%
13%
>2.5%
43%
>2.5% 43%
<0.5% 18.3%
1.5–2.0% 16.9%
2.0–2.5% 13%
$28,008 KL.
$28,008 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,879 KL.
18%
0.5–1.0%
$15,278 KL.
12%
1.0–1.5%
$1,535 KL.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$1,499 KL.
17%
2.0–2.5%
$1,757 KL.
13%
>2.5%
$4,061 KL.
43%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth released April 30—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% amid resilient consumer spending and business investment—coupled with Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showing 3.7% for Q2 as of May 14. Moderately cooling labor markets, with April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, temper enthusiasm and boost 18% odds for sub-0.5% growth amid low consumer sentiment. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5%, with FOMC March projections at 2.4%; watch May CPI and June FOMC for policy shifts impacting the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$28,008Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth released April 30—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% amid resilient consumer spending and business investment—coupled with Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showing 3.7% for Q2 as of May 14. Moderately cooling labor markets, with April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, temper enthusiasm and boost 18% odds for sub-0.5% growth amid low consumer sentiment. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5%, with FOMC March projections at 2.4%; watch May CPI and June FOMC for policy shifts impacting the trajectory.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$28,008Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 39% implied probability for 2026 US real GDP growth exceeding 2.5%, reflecting the Q1 advance estimate of 2.0% annualized growth released April 30—rebounding from Q4 2025's 0.5% amid resilient consumer spending and business investment—coupled with Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model showing 3.7% for Q2 as of May 14. Moderately cooling labor markets, with April nonfarm payrolls at 115,000 and unemployment steady at 4.3%, temper enthusiasm and boost 18% odds for sub-0.5% growth amid low consumer sentiment. Consensus forecasts cluster around 2.2–2.5%, with FOMC March projections at 2.4%; watch May CPI and June FOMC for policy shifts impacting the trajectory.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp