Recent U.S. GDP prints show Q1 2026 growth revised to 1.6% annualized and Q2 advancing 1.5%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures offset by tariff drag and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and private banks centers on 2.0–2.5% for the full year, supported by the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity-enhancing investment, yet tempered by tighter immigration policy and sticky core PCE inflation near 3%. With Polymarket odds split nearly evenly between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, traders appear focused on the net fiscal impulse versus trade and labor-supply headwinds, plus upcoming Q3 data and FOMC signals that could shift the balance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
1.5–2.0% 33.8%
2.0–2.5% 32%
>2.5% 20%
1.0–1.5% 9.9%
$58,052 KL.
$58,052 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
8%
0.5–1.0%
3%
1.0–1.5%
10%
1.5–2.0%
34%
2.0–2.5%
32%
>2.5%
20%
1.5–2.0% 33.8%
2.0–2.5% 32%
>2.5% 20%
1.0–1.5% 9.9%
$58,052 KL.
$58,052 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$7,439 KL.
8%
0.5–1.0%
$17,161 KL.
3%
1.0–1.5%
$3,814 KL.
10%
1.5–2.0%
$6,622 KL.
34%
2.0–2.5%
$7,085 KL.
32%
>2.5%
$15,931 KL.
20%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints show Q1 2026 growth revised to 1.6% annualized and Q2 advancing 1.5%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures offset by tariff drag and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and private banks centers on 2.0–2.5% for the full year, supported by the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity-enhancing investment, yet tempered by tighter immigration policy and sticky core PCE inflation near 3%. With Polymarket odds split nearly evenly between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, traders appear focused on the net fiscal impulse versus trade and labor-supply headwinds, plus upcoming Q3 data and FOMC signals that could shift the balance.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Thị trường mở: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$58,052Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent U.S. GDP prints show Q1 2026 growth revised to 1.6% annualized and Q2 advancing 1.5%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures offset by tariff drag and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and private banks centers on 2.0–2.5% for the full year, supported by the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity-enhancing investment, yet tempered by tighter immigration policy and sticky core PCE inflation near 3%. With Polymarket odds split nearly evenly between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, traders appear focused on the net fiscal impulse versus trade and labor-supply headwinds, plus upcoming Q3 data and FOMC signals that could shift the balance.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Khối lượng
$58,052Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent U.S. GDP prints show Q1 2026 growth revised to 1.6% annualized and Q2 advancing 1.5%, reflecting resilient consumer spending and AI-related capital expenditures offset by tariff drag and softer net exports. Forecaster consensus from the CBO, Philadelphia Fed Survey, and private banks centers on 2.0–2.5% for the full year, supported by the lagged effects of the 2025 reconciliation act and productivity-enhancing investment, yet tempered by tighter immigration policy and sticky core PCE inflation near 3%. With Polymarket odds split nearly evenly between the 1.5–2.0% and 2.0–2.5% brackets, traders appear focused on the net fiscal impulse versus trade and labor-supply headwinds, plus upcoming Q3 data and FOMC signals that could shift the balance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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