Traders in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP growth market assign the highest implied probabilities to mild contractions in the -2.4% to -0.8% annualized QoQ range amid closely bunched odds, reflecting expectations of a sharp slowdown from Q1’s solid 1.8% annualized expansion. The dominant catalyst is the deterioration in terms of trade from elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, which is projected to compress corporate margins and real household income while weighing on private consumption and business investment. Offsetting supports include ongoing wage gains from spring labor negotiations, resilient domestic demand in a tight labor market, and capital expenditure tied to labor-saving technologies, though these appear insufficient to fully counter external pressures in the near term. Market-implied odds remain sensitive to incoming monthly industrial production, retail sales, and inflation prints ahead of the mid-August GDP release, with the narrow spread across negative buckets underscoring uncertainty over the magnitude of any energy-driven drag.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.0%–0.8% 66%
-0.8%–0.0% 43.0%
1.6%–2.4% 43%
3.2%–4.0% 43%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
34%
-2.4%– -1.6%
-
-1.6%– -0.8%
37%
-0.8%–0.0%
43%
0.0%–0.8%
66%
0.8%–1.6%
39%
1.6%–2.4%
43%
2.4%–3.2%
41%
3.2%–4.0%
43%
4.0%+
<1%
0.0%–0.8% 66%
-0.8%–0.0% 43.0%
1.6%–2.4% 43%
3.2%–4.0% 43%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 17, 2026
<-2.4%
$21 KL.
34%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$21 KL.
-
-1.6%– -0.8%
$16 KL.
37%
-0.8%–0.0%
$16 KL.
43%
0.0%–0.8%
$205 KL.
66%
0.8%–1.6%
$21 KL.
39%
1.6%–2.4%
$21 KL.
43%
2.4%–3.2%
$16 KL.
41%
3.2%–4.0%
$60 KL.
43%
4.0%+
$15 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP growth market assign the highest implied probabilities to mild contractions in the -2.4% to -0.8% annualized QoQ range amid closely bunched odds, reflecting expectations of a sharp slowdown from Q1’s solid 1.8% annualized expansion. The dominant catalyst is the deterioration in terms of trade from elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, which is projected to compress corporate margins and real household income while weighing on private consumption and business investment. Offsetting supports include ongoing wage gains from spring labor negotiations, resilient domestic demand in a tight labor market, and capital expenditure tied to labor-saving technologies, though these appear insufficient to fully counter external pressures in the near term. Market-implied odds remain sensitive to incoming monthly industrial production, retail sales, and inflation prints ahead of the mid-August GDP release, with the narrow spread across negative buckets underscoring uncertainty over the magnitude of any energy-driven drag.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Thị trường mở: May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ET
Khối lượng
$412Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlTraders in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP growth market assign the highest implied probabilities to mild contractions in the -2.4% to -0.8% annualized QoQ range amid closely bunched odds, reflecting expectations of a sharp slowdown from Q1’s solid 1.8% annualized expansion. The dominant catalyst is the deterioration in terms of trade from elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, which is projected to compress corporate margins and real household income while weighing on private consumption and business investment. Offsetting supports include ongoing wage gains from spring labor negotiations, resilient domestic demand in a tight labor market, and capital expenditure tied to labor-saving technologies, though these appear insufficient to fully counter external pressures in the near term. Market-implied odds remain sensitive to incoming monthly industrial production, retail sales, and inflation prints ahead of the mid-August GDP release, with the narrow spread across negative buckets underscoring uncertainty over the magnitude of any energy-driven drag.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the second quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q2 of 2026, scheduled for release on August 17, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Khối lượng
$412Ngày kết thúc
Aug 17, 2026Thị trường mở
May 26, 2026, 2:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders in the Japan Q2 2026 GDP growth market assign the highest implied probabilities to mild contractions in the -2.4% to -0.8% annualized QoQ range amid closely bunched odds, reflecting expectations of a sharp slowdown from Q1’s solid 1.8% annualized expansion. The dominant catalyst is the deterioration in terms of trade from elevated crude oil prices tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions, which is projected to compress corporate margins and real household income while weighing on private consumption and business investment. Offsetting supports include ongoing wage gains from spring labor negotiations, resilient domestic demand in a tight labor market, and capital expenditure tied to labor-saving technologies, though these appear insufficient to fully counter external pressures in the near term. Market-implied odds remain sensitive to incoming monthly industrial production, retail sales, and inflation prints ahead of the mid-August GDP release, with the narrow spread across negative buckets underscoring uncertainty over the magnitude of any energy-driven drag.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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