Recent stimulus measures and a September rebound in official manufacturing PMI to 50.1 have supported trader expectations for China’s Q3 2026 GDP growth to settle in the 4.3-4.6% range, following the 4.3% Q2 print that marked the slowest pace in over three years. Persistent weakness in domestic consumption, retail sales, and real estate investment continues to weigh on the outlook, offset by resilient exports tied to AI-driven manufacturing demand and targeted fiscal support. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with the 4.5-5% annual target providing an anchor while highlighting downside risks from subdued investment and deflationary pressures. Q3 data, due mid-October, will test whether recent policy signals can sustain momentum into year-end.