Recent Japan economic data and forecaster surveys point to modest Q3 2026 GDP growth, with the Japan Center for Economic Research's mid-September consensus at 0.25% annualized, revised upward from prior estimates. Q2 expansion reached 1.4% annualized on firmer capex and government spending, yet private consumption remains nearly flat amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and only gradual real wage gains. The Bank of Japan's September rate hike to 1.25% reflects tightening policy to anchor underlying inflation near 2%, potentially curbing momentum. Yen depreciation supports exports while import costs add pressure. With probabilities clustered across the 0.0–1.6% range, traders appear focused on whether consumption and external demand can sustain the post-Q2 pace ahead of the November preliminary release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật0.8%–1.6% 28%
0.0%–0.8% 27.9%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
<-2.4% 7.3%
$27,907 KL.
$27,907 KL.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
7%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
22%
0.0%–0.8%
28%
0.8%–1.6%
18%
1.6%–2.4%
6%
2.4%–3.2%
4%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 28%
0.0%–0.8% 27.9%
-0.8%–0.0% 22%
<-2.4% 7.3%
$27,907 KL.
$27,907 KL.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$604 KL.
7%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,758 KL.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 KL.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,829 KL.
22%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,689 KL.
28%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,836 KL.
18%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 KL.
6%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,422 KL.
4%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,244 KL.
3%
4.0%+
$561 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Japan economic data and forecaster surveys point to modest Q3 2026 GDP growth, with the Japan Center for Economic Research's mid-September consensus at 0.25% annualized, revised upward from prior estimates. Q2 expansion reached 1.4% annualized on firmer capex and government spending, yet private consumption remains nearly flat amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and only gradual real wage gains. The Bank of Japan's September rate hike to 1.25% reflects tightening policy to anchor underlying inflation near 2%, potentially curbing momentum. Yen depreciation supports exports while import costs add pressure. With probabilities clustered across the 0.0–1.6% range, traders appear focused on whether consumption and external demand can sustain the post-Q2 pace ahead of the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Thị trường mở: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Khối lượng
$27,907Ngày kết thúc
Nov 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlRecent Japan economic data and forecaster surveys point to modest Q3 2026 GDP growth, with the Japan Center for Economic Research's mid-September consensus at 0.25% annualized, revised upward from prior estimates. Q2 expansion reached 1.4% annualized on firmer capex and government spending, yet private consumption remains nearly flat amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and only gradual real wage gains. The Bank of Japan's September rate hike to 1.25% reflects tightening policy to anchor underlying inflation near 2%, potentially curbing momentum. Yen depreciation supports exports while import costs add pressure. With probabilities clustered across the 0.0–1.6% range, traders appear focused on whether consumption and external demand can sustain the post-Q2 pace ahead of the November preliminary release.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Khối lượng
$27,907Ngày kết thúc
Nov 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan economic data and forecaster surveys point to modest Q3 2026 GDP growth, with the Japan Center for Economic Research's mid-September consensus at 0.25% annualized, revised upward from prior estimates. Q2 expansion reached 1.4% annualized on firmer capex and government spending, yet private consumption remains nearly flat amid higher energy costs tied to Middle East tensions and only gradual real wage gains. The Bank of Japan's September rate hike to 1.25% reflects tightening policy to anchor underlying inflation near 2%, potentially curbing momentum. Yen depreciation supports exports while import costs add pressure. With probabilities clustered across the 0.0–1.6% range, traders appear focused on whether consumption and external demand can sustain the post-Q2 pace ahead of the November preliminary release.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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